Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Topeka, KS

010 
WWUS53 KTOP 192356
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSC139-200030-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-160820T0030Z/
OSAGE-
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 656 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCRANTON...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARBONDALE...OVERBROOK...SCRANTON AND POMONA LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9577 3886 9577 3887 9564 3887 9550
      3861 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 270DEG 23KT 3876 9567 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

769 
WWUS53 KTOP 200015
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSC139-200025-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-160820T0030Z/
OSAGE-
715 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3866 9577 3886 9577 3887 9564 3887 9550
      3861 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 271DEG 19KT 3876 9554 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level disturbance currently
over north central Kansas. With this, a cluster of storms have
formed and along a surface front extending from western Iowa into
southwest Kansas. Storms started as elevated and have become more
surface based as they organize, with small hail and heavy rain
already reported. CAPE ahead of this activity is over 2500 J/kg,
with DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, and shear continues to be
marginal with values near 25kts. Models indicate storms may
initially start as clusters and then merge into a line as they
move through the forecast area primarily between 3 and 10 PM. The
main threat will be locally damaging winds with any clusters that
manage to move ahead of the front and bow, but small to severe
hail is also possible. Rainfall totals are generally be around an
inch for the area, although heavier amounts up to 2.5 inches will
be possible creating a concern for localized flash flooding.
Storms will be diurnal in nature and should begin to weaken after
sunset.

Scattered showers may linger behind the front, but overall storms
will come to an end by early morning tomorrow.  Conditions will
steadily improve through the morning with skies clearing from west
to east as surface high pressure moves into the area.  A strong
pressure gradient will be present over the area tomorrow morning as
this new airmass pushes into northeast Kansas and gusty winds up to
20kts are expected through the morning, decreasing through the
afternoon. Even with clearing skies and ample sunshine tomorrow
afternoon, prevalent cold air advection will only allow highs to
top out in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the Central Plains on the
backside of the upper level trough moving into the Mid Mississippi
Valley Saturday night. High pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas and gradually move east across eastern Kansas on
Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be cool with highs in the low to
mid 50s. Forecast soundings show mixing down from 780mb to 820 mb
from west to east on Sunday which should give highs in the lower
80s. As an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest
Sunday night a surface trough will develop across the Western High
Plains while the surface high moves off to the east. This will
induce a return of southerly flow across the area and expect lows
Monday morning from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday the upper
trough will deepen across the west with ridging across the Central
Plains. Expect highs to be a few degrees warmer on Monday with highs
in the mid 80s with a few readings in the upper 80s possible near
central Kansas. Sensible weather will be rather benign Saturday
night through Monday.

Tuesday through Friday will see off and on rain and thunderstorm
chances as a pair of weak waves traverse over a weak and slow moving
frontal boundary across northeast into east central Kansas.  On
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning it seems reasonable with the
timing of shortwaves and development of a weak to moderately strong
LLJ in place over central to north central Kansas could enhance
elevated showers and storms which eventually move into portions of
northeastern Kansas overnight.  Some stronger storms could have just
enough instability and shear have some small hail and strong gusty
winds.  Second best chance of storms for the extended period sets up
Wednesday night into Thursday early morning as second wave moves
into the region.  After this, the front should push south as a
stronger surface ridge builds in from the northwest.  Expect temps
to be overall lower during the period with highs in low to mid 80s
with overnight lows possibly around 60 by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Thunderstorms continue to move east throughout the forecast area.
TSRA will reach TOP/FOE within the hour and are expected to have
brief periods of IFR conditions within the heavy rain.  MHK should
stay VFR through the period now with rain ending near 01Z. TOP/FOE
may see brief MVFR ceilings post frontal before sunrise. Storms will
completely clear the area early morning and gusty winds will pick up
after 13Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
336 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10
PM. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW WOODBINE          38.84N 97.00W
08/19/2016  E40 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 40MPH BUT NO
            DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S CHAPMAN             38.91N 97.04W
08/19/2016  M45.00 MPH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WITH CALIBRATED INSTRUMENT. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

BDRAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ011-012-192245-
NEMAHA-BROWN-
527 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN AND NEMAHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 527 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AUBURN TO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VERMILLION. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SABETHA...SENECA...CENTRALIA...FAIRVIEW...MORRILL...BERN...CORNING...
GOFF...ONEIDA...WOODLAWN AND BAILEYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9561 3957 9591 3957 9621 3958 9624
      3979 9624 4000 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 290DEG 24KT 4032 9579 3967 9623

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW OGDEN             39.12N 96.78W
08/19/2016  M67 MPH          RILEY              KS   MESONET

            KANSAS MESONET SITE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
600 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW OGDEN             39.12N 96.78W
08/19/2016  M67.00 MPH       RILEY              KS   MESONET

            KANSAS MESONET SITE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ038-039-055-192345-
WABAUNSEE-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE AND
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. MARYS TO 4 MILES WEST OF HARVEYVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOPEKA...CARBONDALE...ROSSVILLE...TECUMSEH...RICHLAND...DOVER...
SILVER LAKE...AUBURN...OVERBROOK...BURLINGAME...SCRANTON...
MAPLE HILL...HARVEYVILLE...WILLARD...KEENE...BERRYTON...
POMONA LAKE AND PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 339 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3861 9551 3869 9595 3874 9595 3874 9608
      3919 9608 3916 9606 3916 9607 3914 9604
      3913 9604 3922 9603 3921 9559 3907 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3905 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 275DEG 34KT 3916 9604 3880 9604