Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Topeka, KS

058 
WWUS53 KTOP 112317
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSC157-112330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-160811T2330Z/
REPUBLIC-
617 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 616 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WEBBER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REPUBLIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9768 3977 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 228DEG 29KT 3994 9797 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

350 
WWUS53 KTOP 112327
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSC157-112336-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-160811T2330Z/
REPUBLIC-
627 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4000 9768 3977 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 226DEG 32KT 3994 9797 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

Current water vapor and derived winds show a weak shortwave possibly
moving over eastern CO and western KS. At the surface there is a
cold front that stretches from western KS into northeast NE. There
are some mid level clouds over western KS, which has prevented
surface heating there, while central and eastern KS are mostly sunny
and temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Dew points will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s with the deeper
mixing across central KS. The heat indices are still on track to
range from 105 to 114 this afternoon and early evening.

As the front pushes into central KS the cap should be relatively
weak and surface convergence may begin to support convection. The
mid level lapse rates are marginal, but MLcape will still be around
2500 to 3000 j/kg. Deep mixing has caused dew point depressions
upwards of 30 degrees supporting decent downdraft cape. The deep
layer shear is very limited through the evening. Therefore later
this afternoon there is a chance for isolated to scattered storm
development in central KS and move to the northeast. These storms
may be capable of localized damaging wind gusts, but widespread
severe weather is not expected. The threat for damaging winds will
be highest across central and north central KS. Storm outflows may
allow the storms to push into portions of northeast KS before
weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Most of the surface
based convection should diminish a few hours after sunset as well
as the wind threat.

Later this evening the front will move into eastern KS while the mid
level wave lifts northeastward. In response the low level jet will
increase out of the southwest causing an increase in isentropic lift
ahead of the front. Therefore the chances for showers and storms
will spread eastward through the evening. Cape will be on the
decrease so these storms should not pose much of a threat. The low
level jet may intersect any existing outflows to cause further
redevelopment. Tonight precipitable water values will be around 2
inches and low level moisture transport vectors are high over the
area. Corfidi vectors are forecasted to be under 5 kts, so cell
training may be possible around the focus for lift. All that said a
widespread half to one inch is expected with locally higher amounts
possible. Showers and storms will linger into tomorrow morning as
the front pushes through eastern KS. Most of the moderate to heavy
rainfall should come to an end during this time frame as well.
Clouds will stick around tomorrow, but highs are forecasted around
the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be on their way out of the
forecast area through Friday evening as the front continues to
deepen and push farther southward into Oklahoma through the night.
With the area under a relatively flat upper trof through the
weekend, the forecast area remains north of the boundary as the trof
slowly makes its way eastward into the great lakes by late Sunday
night.  End result is for cooler highs in the 80s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 60s Friday night with middle 60s widespread by
Saturday night.  Light north to northeast winds and dewpoints in the
60s also aid in making for a pleasant near normal weekend for this
time of year.

For the extended forecast period from Monday thru Thursday,
expecting mainly dry conditions to hold.  Deep subtropical moisture
will still be mainly south of the region as a boundary should be
stalled out generally over the Southern Plains to the Northeastern
CONUS vicinity.  While main Westerly flow will be off to the north,
a few weak waves may still be able to develop along the stalled
boundary and create areas of showers and thunderstorms that creep up
into areas of east central Kansas but should remain mostly confined
to the southeast of the I-70 and I-335 corridors.  GFS is still the
most aggressive with returning precip as the ECMWF remains focused
further to the south and east of the forecast area with areas of
major precip. Do expect that any activity could be mainly
nocturnalin conjunction with weak isentropic ascent in the low to
mid levels with elevated storms being the likely outcome if any
develop. Severe likelihood seems low at this point with weak
lapse rates over the region and weak shear profiles expected to be
the story. Days should be mostly sunny with a fairly strong cap in
place during the period with H85 temps trends well above 12C. A
welcome relief to temps will take place with overall lower
dewpoints and high temps generally in the mid 80s. Overnight lows
hold in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

VFR conditions until showers and storms from along a cold front
and approach the taf sites later this evening. There is a small
chance for gusty winds at MHK with the stronger storms. Overnight
periods of moderate to heavy rain may cause brief IFR/MVFR
visibilities. These showers and storms will likely last through
the morning hours before moving out late in the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67/Drake
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
311 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 104 TO 114
DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO HERINGTON.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP