Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Topeka, KS

898 
WWUS53 KTOP 120850
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSC085-149-177-197-120915-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-160712T0915Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON
AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 350 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONAGA TO NEAR BELVUE TO MCFARLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAMEGO...ROSSVILLE...ST. MARYS...MAPLE HILL...PAXICO...BELVUE...
EMMETT AND DELIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 9587 3925 9586 3907 9598 3907 9639
      3913 9634 3943 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 251DEG 44KT 3942 9615 3925 9614 3907 9626 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

004 
WWUS53 KTOP 120907
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSC085-149-177-197-120917-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-160712T0915Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WABAUNSEE...
NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 AM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3942 9587 3925 9586 3907 9598 3907 9639
      3913 9634 3943 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 251DEG 46KT 3942 9615 3925 9614 3907 9626 

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Early this morning an upper level trough was lifting northeast
across the eastern plains into the upper midwest. A surface front
extended from southeast NE, southwest across the northwest counties
of the CWA. A combination of lift from the departing H5 trough and
convergence ahead of the front has lead to the development of
scattered strong storms across northeast and north central KS.

Today, the morning storms should shift northeast of the CWA during
the mid morning hours. The weak surface front will remain nearly
stationary. During the afternoon hours scattered thunderstorms will
redevelop along and southeast of the surface front across the
northeast counties, and the thunderstorms should back build
southwestward along the front into the southwest counties of the CWA
during the late afternoon hours. The scattered storms will propagate
southeast across east central KS during the evening hours and push
southeast of the CWA by midnight Wednesday. Some of the
thunderstorms will be strong to severe given a favorable environment
with 2500 to 3500 j/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6KM effective shear of 30 to
40 KTS. Any intense updraft may rotate which would produce large
hail and damaging wind gusts. If a line of storms develops through
the late afternoon and evening hours then the primary hazards will
be strong damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Highs Today will be slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s, though
the dewpoints may rise to into the mid 70s along and south of the
front across east central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

On Wednesday another cold front will approach the forecast area from
the north as a mid level trough tracks over southern Canada. Storms
are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon across
far southern NE. The instability will be high ahead of the front and
high temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s. Forecast soundings
show deep mixing in the warm sector, which will lead to steep low
level lapse rates. This environment will support mainly damaging
wind and possibly large hail given the steep mid level lapse rates
as well. Storms will progress southward through the evening and
overnight as the front gradually slides through the area. On
Thursday the front should be located somewhere in eastern KS when a
weak mid level shortwave ejects out of the Rockies. This could
support an expansive area of storms along and north of the boundary.
The instability and shear might support strong to severe storms in
the forecast area during the evening and overnight. The NAM and
ECMWF are further southwest with the track of the wave and therefore
miss the area. So there is still some uncertainty with this period.
The models are advertising the possibility of additional mid level
shortwaves to track over the central plains this weekend and early
next week. Therefore the chances for periods of showers and storms
will continue. The mid level ridge appears to build directly over
eastern KS next week, which will push the storm track further north
and allow the heat to build.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

TSRA expected to increase in coverage through 11Z and have
inserted tsra in tempo groups from 07Z through 11Z. Models suggest
convection will decrease through 15Z with a lull until around 21Z
with redevelopment across the area. Have added vcts after 22Z.
Winds south around 10 kts through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-130815-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLETHIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS. THERE
IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
132 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ020-120700-
CLOUD-
132 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM
CDT...

AT 130 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SIMPSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCORDIA...GLASCO...JAMESTOWN AND AURORA.

LAT...LON 3963 9793 3963 9752 3935 9751 3935 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 266DEG 19KT 3953 9785

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ020-021-034-120715-
OTTAWA-CLAY-CLOUD-
142 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD
AND NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 141 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MILTONVALE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAY CENTER...MILTONVALE...OAK HILL AND IDANA.

LAT...LON 3946 9706 3921 9705 3922 9746 3939 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 254DEG 22KT 3931 9738

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
157 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ034-120730-
OTTAWA-
157 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 155 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ADA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BENNINGTON...TESCOTT...CULVER...WELLS AND ADA.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3927 9749 3897 9748 3896 9782
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 254DEG 22KT 3909 9782

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
202 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ023-024-120730-
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-
202 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 202 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WHEATON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ONAGA...SOLDIER...HAVENSVILLE AND WHEATON.

LAT...LON 3932 9589 3932 9634 3954 9636 3957 9593
      3957 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 259DEG 25KT 3943 9627

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
218 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ021-022-035-036-120745-
RILEY-DICKINSON-CLAY-GEARY-
218 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY...CLAY...
WESTERN RILEY AND NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 216 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANVILLE, SOUTH TO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF ABILENE. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNCTION CITY...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CHAPMAN...WAKEFIELD...
MILFORD...LEONARDVILLE...MORGANVILLE...GREEN...MANCHESTER...
LONGFORD...OAK HILL...MILFORD LAKE...MOONLIGHT...TALMAGE AND IDANA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 280 AND 295.

LAT...LON 3896 9685 3894 9734 3956 9735 3957 9703
      3957 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 259DEG 24KT 3928 9721

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

KSZ035-120830-
DICKINSON-
258 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

AT 257 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NILES TO NEAR FLORENCE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABILENE...HERINGTON...CHAPMAN...SOLOMON...ENTERPRISE...HOPE...
WOODBINE AND CARLTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 285.

LAT...LON 3893 9737 3898 9737 3899 9696 3897 9696
      3897 9695 3875 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737
      3891 9737 3892 9738 3893 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 232DEG 24KT 3900 9742 3831 9691

GARGAN