Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
249 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level disturbance continues to
push northward through the region. Scattered thunderstorms are
developing as a result. Most storms will remain below severe
limits...but an isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible.
Most storms will diminish around Midnight, then expect another
round of storms to develop over Southwest MT late Sunday morning
or during the early afternoon hours. This line of storms again
will push northward into North Central MT by Sunday evening.
Precipitation amounts look fairly widespread Sunday evening, thus
pops are on the higher side. On Monday, the next upper level low
will over Washington state...a bit further west than previously
thought, thus pops have been reduced a bit, as the bulk of the
precipitation from this upper level low will start to move into
the region Monday night into Tuesday. Overall afternoon
temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be near to just a few
degrees below normal across the region. Brusda

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast models are in much better
agreement than yesterday with this period's solution. The upper
level low pressure trough is forecast to remain over the Pacific
Northwest through Tuesday evening, which will continue to draw
monsoonal and Gulf of Mexico moisture into Montana. This will keep a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms over the area through
Tuesday morning, with more widespread storms likely during the
afternoon and evening hours. The GFS and ECMWF models both lift the
trough out of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday to the
Montana/Canada border Wednesday night. This is more in line with
last night's GFS solution, but it is about 12 to 24 hours quicker
with its movement than last night. Regardless, this will keep a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area through
Wednesday, but the chance will decrease Wednesday night through
Friday as the trough exits the area. High pressure aloft will then
build in behind the trough, keeping the area dry into Saturday. The
passage of the trough will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below
normal through Thursday, but as the high pressure builds into the
area, temperatures will warm back closer to normal by Saturday.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1750Z.
Satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate cloud cover thinning over
north-central MT and clearing over the SW. A band of light rain
showers will affect KHVR early this afternoon before clearing.
Environment will destabilize with clearing skies. The evening
forecast continues to indicate scattered -TSRA, forming over the SW
around 22Z then moving northeast through around 06Z.  VFR conditions
prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds. Fog is possible VCTY
KCTB early sunday morning, but will re-evaluate on subsequent
updates. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight, scattered thunderstorms will move through the region. A
mix of wet/dry thunderstorms can be expected. Some of the stronger
storms could produce gusty erratic wind gusts around 50 mph.
Expect a repeat of these conditions on Sunday, with more storms on
the wetter side, especially over North Central MT. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue to affect mainly North Central MT from
Mon thru Wed...with afternoon temperatures slightly below normal.
Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Increasing chances for widespread rainfall is expected over North
Central MT from Tonight through Wednesday. The WRF model progs
heavy rainfall of 1 to 1.50 inches over Glacier Park on Sunday
night. This model is the only model that went that high with the
QPF...thus holding off on any highlights for now. Otherwise, a
good rainfall is expected for much of the region, but some
agricultural harvesting problems could develop with the wetter
conditions. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  83  52  83 /  50  70  80  20
CTB  52  79  51  78 /  50  60  80  10
HLN  57  83  54  84 /  30  90  40  30
BZN  53  86  50  85 /  40  50  40  20
WEY  46  73  42  74 /  20  40  30  10
DLN  51  82  48  81 /  40  50  30  20
HVR  58  86  58  83 /  30  40  80  10
LWT  55  84  55  81 /  40  50  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning continues until 9 PM this evening for portions
of Southwest MT.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

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