Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
515 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...An upper level disturbance continues to
push eastward through the region. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
continue to develop along this disturbance. The main threat from
the storms this evening will be brief heavy rain and lightning
strikes. Expect fairly similar conditions over the region on
Wednesday...with mostly quiet conditions in the morning followed
by scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.
On Thursday, the flow aloft will shift slightly to the northwest
as the upper level ridge tries to rebuild over the Pacific
Northwest. On Thursday, expected thunderstorms to be more
isolated, as a weaker upper level disturbance moves through, with the
storms mainly affecting the eastern portions of the region.
Afternoon temperatures will generally be near normal Wed/Thu with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...The last in a series of shortwave
disturbances exits to the east Thursday night. Temperatures trend
back into the lower 90s Friday and Saturday amid a generally stable
westerly flow. However, isolated weak afternoon thundershowers may
be possible during this period over our northeast zones associated
with a weak baroclinic zone. A stronger weather system moves across
the Canadian Rockies Saturday night into Sunday, forcing a southwest
flow aloft over the region. This will help to draw monsoonal
moisture into southwest Montana, with enhanced chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures trend a
few degrees cooler to start next week with lower heights over the
northwest and isolated to scattered showers. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2315Z.

VFR conditions are generally expected over the next 24 hours. A
disturbance in the westerly flow aloft is moving over a very warm
and unstable airmass across the forecast area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed south of a KGTF to KLWT line, while
more numerous storms are north of this line. These storms will move
east across the area through 06Z with the disturbance, with storms
diminishing after 02Z from the west. The main overall threat from
these storms will be gusts in excess of 40 kt and brief heavy rain.
However, some of the stronger storms to the north may produce hail
up to penny size. The main threat for these stronger storms will be
northeast of a KCTB to KLWT line (which includes KHVR). After 06Z, a
few showers may move southeast along the Hi-Line, but clouds
elsewhere will generally diminish. Another weak disturbance may
bring another chance for thunderstorms to the area beginning after
18Z in the KCTB area.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  85  56  84 /  40  20  30  20
CTB  53  80  53  80 /  50  30  40  20
HLN  62  89  60  89 /  20  10  20  10
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  43  79  45  78 /  30  10  20  10
DLN  53  87  53  87 /  20  10  20  10
HVR  60  84  58  84 /  50  30  40  20
LWT  58  81  57  81 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
619 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

MTZ012-270100-
CASCADE MT-
619 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM MDT...

AT 619 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18
MILES EAST OF CASCADE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH ARE LIKELY THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STOCKETT...CENTERVILLE...EDEN...
SLUICE BOXES STATE PARK AND SAND COULEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4709 11137 4734 11146 4745 11097 4711 11088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 257DEG 13KT 4723 11131

COULSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
621 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

MTZ008-015-270100-
BEAVERHEAD MT-MADISON MT-
621 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MADISON AND CENTRAL
BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 619 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIVIDE TO DILLON TO 17
MILES NORTHEAST OF LEADORE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DILLON...SHERIDAN...VIRGINIA CITY...TWIN BRIDGES...LIMA...
SILVER STAR...ALDER...GLEN...LAURIN...DELL...
BEAVERHEAD ROCK STATE PARK...CLARK CANYON...SNOWLINE AND MELROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4474 11313 4480 11319 4521 11271 4563 11269
      4571 11252 4572 11192 4499 11196 4450 11248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 286DEG 27KT 4563 11261 4519 11263 4482 11307

HOENISCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
630 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

MTZ011-047-270115-
HILL MT-BLAINE MT-
630 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BLAINE AND
NORTHEASTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 629 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF GILDFORD TO 26 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CHINOOK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4882 10886 4868 11003 4899 11044 4900 11032
      4900 10946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 291DEG 14KT 4883 11027 4892 10954

COULSTON

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