Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 30, 2016Hill County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this special weather statement at Jun 30, 2016, 8:47 PM MDT for Hill County, Montana. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 30, 2016, 8:47 PM MDT (02:47 UTC)
Expired: Jun 30, 2016, 9:30 PM MDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT

County Hill County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 180 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 329 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2731 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 30, 5:40 PM MDT, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 5:40 PM MDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 30, 5:47 PM MDT, 3 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
547 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             10 SSE LOMA             47.81N 110.41W
06/30/2016  M0.25 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
            OF 25 TO 30 MPH. 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

&&

MARTIN

Local storm report, Jun 30, 6:42 PM MDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
642 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             KREMLIN                 48.57N 110.09W
06/30/2016  M1.00 INCH       HILL               MT   PUBLIC

            HAIL PILED UP TO A DEPTH OF 4 INCHES. EXTENSIVE CROP
            DAMAGE.

&&

MPJ

Local storm report, Jun 30, 8:37 PM MDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
837 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             KREMLIN                 48.57N 110.09W
06/30/2016  E1.75 INCH       HILL               MT   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK REPORT

&&

JAA

Local storm report, Jun 30, 8:40 PM MDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
840 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             KREMLIN                 48.57N 110.09W
06/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       HILL               MT   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK PICTURE SHOWING HAIL SIZE OF A ONE DOLLAR COIN

&&

JAA

Local storm report, Jun 30, 8:47 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
847 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             CUT BANK                48.63N 112.33W
06/30/2016  E0.25 INCH       GLACIER            MT   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.

&&

JAA

Special weather statement, Jun 30, 8:47 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
847 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

MTZ011-010330-
HILL MT-
847 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HILL COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM MDT...

AT 846 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23
MILES NORTH OF GILDFORD...OR 37 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHESTER...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4862 10977 4891 11061 4900 11056 4899 10975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 288DEG 32KT 4891 11040

MPJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 30, 6:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	30 min
Jun 30, 7:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	26 min
Jun 30, 7:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	31 min
Jun 30, 8:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill, Liberty	27 min
Jun 30, 9:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Hill	34 min
Jun 30, 10:06 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	24 min
Jun 30, 10:39 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.