Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Great Falls, MT

107 
WWUS55 KTFX 100244
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
844 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTC005-027-100315-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160810T0315Z/
BLAINE MT-FERGUS MT-
844 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTIES...

AT 841 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINIFRED TO 19 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...AT 9:40 PM MDT, A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HALF DOLLAR-SIZE
         HAIL 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROY. PER RADAR, THESE STORMS ARE
         STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG
         BALLS.  

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINIFRED...SUFFOLK...CHRISTINA AND FRED ROBINSON BRIDGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4738 10866 4737 10946 4772 10954 4786 10889
      4774 10890 4771 10882 4765 10877 4760 10850
      4761 10844 4758 10842 4760 10840 4757 10834
      4758 10831 4751 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 241DEG 25KT 4766 10908 4754 10868 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

096 
WWUS55 KTFX 100306
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTC005-027-100315-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160810T0315Z/
BLAINE MT-FERGUS MT-
906 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BLAINE AND
NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM MDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:15 PM THIS
EVENING. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4738 10866 4737 10946 4772 10954 4786 10889
      4774 10890 4771 10882 4765 10877 4760 10850
      4761 10844 4758 10842 4760 10840 4757 10834
      4758 10831 4751 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 241DEG 25KT 4766 10908 4754 10868 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
210 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Upper low centered near the ID/WA/OR
border this afternoon will track ENE into NW MT this evening,
emerging east of the Glacier NP region by early Wed morning.
Thunderstorms have initiated over the higher terrain of Western MT
and will track NE in SW flow aloft ahead of the low through this
evening. Upper level jet streaming NE into S-central MT with
cooling aloft from the approaching upper low will lead to large
scale lift and increasing thunderstorm coverage over much of the
forecast area this afternoon, except for far southern portions of
the area near the WY border where the airmass is driest and
furthest removed from the influence of the upper low. Greatest
potential for widespread coverage and more intense convection
continues to be across north-central MT late this afternoon
through early this evening, where low level E/NE winds to the
north of an inverted surface trough have brought dewpoints to near
or above 50F and will provide additional directional wind shear
for potentially severe storms with damaging wind and large hail
being the main threats. Surface trough to the SE and upper low to
the NW shifts east this evening with winds becoming NW at the
surface after the initial convective activity moves through.
Additional energy associated with the upper low will likely
provide another round of showers and weaker thunderstorms late
this evening into the overnight period, particularly across NW
portions of the forecast area. Cooler and drier air surges across
the region WEdnesday as the upper low tracks NE along and north of
the US/Canadian border. Moisture wrapping around the upper low
will mainly impact areas along and north of Hwy- 2 through the
day, ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
gusty west winds will be widespread Wednesday with temperatures
about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. A NW flow remains
across the region Thursday with rising heights for warmer
conditions with a small chance afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Hoenisch

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...The period begins with an upper
ridge amplifying over the west coast and northwest flow aloft
over the area. Short wave energy embedded within this flow aloft
will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across central
and northern Montana Thursday night and then again Friday
afternoon. The ridge then moves east and ushers in a warm and dry
period, lasting from Friday night through midday Sunday. The
models bring a rather fast moving upper trof across the Pacific
Northwest Sunday afternoon and the divergent southwest flow aloft
out ahead of this feature will help initiate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms along the Rocky Mountain Front which will then move
out onto the plains through Sunday evening. The European model
begins to rebuild the upper ridge over western Montana on Monday
while the GFS is a bit slower in moving the upper trof out of the
area. Have gone with the drier ECMWF for Monday. The flow aloft
becomes more westerly on Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the period but will warm to above average readings from
Sunday through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Upper level low moves across northern ID this afternoon and across
NW MT this evening, emerging east of the continental divide along the
MT/AB border Wednesday morning. SW flow aloft through this afternoon
with increasing thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon through
this evening ahead of an eastward moving cold front associated with
the upper low. NE to east winds at area terminals will persist until
the front passes this evening which will be accompanied by a wind
shift to the W/NW. Some Thunderstorms this evening could produce
large hail and damaging winds, particularly across N-central MT.
Thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity late this
evening but additional moisture circulating around the low will
spread showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms across
northern terminals late tonight into WEdnesday morning. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions in the vicinity of
thunderstorms as well as gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  74  50  79 /  60  30  10  20
CTB  52  68  51  76 /  80  70  20  40
HLN  51  76  52  80 /  50  10  10  20
BZN  46  78  47  80 /  10  10  10  20
WEY  40  68  37  69 /  10   0   0  20
DLN  43  75  45  77 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  56  72  55  78 /  70  30  20  20
LWT  51  75  51  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
625 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     MALMSTROM AFB           47.51N 111.18W
08/09/2016  M58 MPH          CASCADE            MT   ASOS

&&

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
648 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ050-051-100130-
FERGUS MT-JUDITH BASIN MT-
648 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN AND
WEST CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 648 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF HOBSON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STANFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON...HOBSON...ACKLEY LAKE STATE PARK...WINDHAM...DANVERS...
UTICA...BENCHLAND AND MOCCASIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4689 11002 4702 11026 4751 10983 4722 10932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 218DEG 30KT 4700 11008

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
654 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ012-013-100145-
CASCADE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-
654 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHOUTEAU...NORTHEASTERN
CASCADE AND SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

AT 653 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGHWOOD...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT BENTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT BENTON...HIGHWOOD...CARTER...LOMA...PORTAGE AND FLOWEREE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4781 11008 4748 11098 4769 11118 4813 11092
      4813 11083 4821 11083 4822 11078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 226DEG 34KT 4771 11090

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
700 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREAT FALLS             47.50N 111.29W
08/09/2016                   CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF CARS STRANDED AND ROADS IMPASSABLE
            IN THE CITY OF GREAT FALLS.

&&

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
715 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

MTZ047-051-100200-
FERGUS MT-BLAINE MT-
715 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU...
SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND NORTHWESTERN FERGUS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
MDT...

AT 714 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF DENTON...OR 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF STANFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINIFRED...SUFFOLK AND JUDITH LANDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4745 10916 4730 10990 4747 11004 4753 10987
      4755 10984 4765 10984 4771 10976 4770 10973
      4774 10967 4774 10954 4777 10953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 235DEG 24KT 4747 10986

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
747 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             10 S GERALDINE          47.46N 110.27W
08/09/2016  E1.00 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAA