Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
306 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Currently in the upper levels, broad low pressure is spinning over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to drift south
towards the Tampa Bay through tonight. This low is bringing cooler
temperatures in aloft, which could help support a few stronger
storms this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. At the surface,
a ridge of high pressure is currently sitting off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, while a cold front pushes into the southeastern CONUS.
Meanwhile, the Florida Peninsula remains under rather weak flow,
with slow steering flow keeping storm motion nearly stationary. With
precipitable water values holding around 1.5 inches or more, expect
scattered thunderstorms to develop again on Tuesday across the area.
Overall, Tuesday will shape up much like what was seen this weekend
and again today, with a few storms lingering over the waters through
the early morning hours, then isolated storms developing over the
Florida Peninsula during the early afternoon and expanding to
scattered coverage through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storms will then shift offshore and mostly dissipate through
the evening and overnight hours.

Temperatures will remain near to a couple degrees above normal, with
highs from the upper 80s to around 90, and lows tonight in the
70s.

.MID/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)...
Models in good agreement through the work week then start to
diverge over the weekend and into next week. Latest solutions
continue to keep large closed upper low spinning from north of the
the Great Lakes region Tuesday Night sinking southward into the
Ohio River valley Thursday. This low and associated trough moving
over the Gulf Coast region to push a surface cold front through
the Deep South mid- week and over the C FL peninsula Thursday
before stalling Friday. Expect warm and humid conditions with
diurnal scattered to numerous storms over the area ahead of the
front and then convective activity to be confined and remain south
of the front to end the week and into the weekend. Exact southern
extend of the front still in doubt, but expect much drier and not
as warm conditions over the N FL Peninsula to end the week into
the weekend. Upper low to lift into New England late in the
weekend and Monday but its still uncertain what, if any,
troughiness will remain in the region to steer any possible
tropical feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few storms are starting to develop across the area, and will
continue to expand in coverage through early evening. With slow
storm motion, individual terminals may be under IFR conditions for
extended periods this afternoon. VFR conditions will take control
again after around 02-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will continue to hold north of the waters through
the next several days, with light and generally east winds turning
onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop over the Florida Peninsula each afternoon and shift
west into the Gulf during the early evening, with a few storms
lingering overnight. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds and
seas will remain rather light through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity is forecast to remain above critical thresholds
through the week, with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  88  76  87 /  20  30  10  40
FMY  74  89  75  88 /  30  40  20  40
GIF  72  90  73  88 /  40  50  10  50
SRQ  75  88  76  87 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  70  90  72  87 /  20  30  10  40
SPG  77  88  78  86 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-261615-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
510 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL.
REMEMBER...IF THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
CONTINUED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL WILL DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WYNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
407 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

FLZ052-262030-
POLK FL-
407 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MEDULLA...OR NEAR LAKELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKELAND...BARTOW...AUBURNDALE...LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT...MEDULLA...
FUSSELS CORNER...COMBEE SETTLEMENT...JAN PHYL VILLAGE...FORT MEADE...
MULBERRY...LAKELAND HIGHLANDS...WINSTON...CRYSTAL LAKE...
HIGHLAND CITY...WILLOW OAK...HOMELAND...GIBSONIA AND KATHLEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2783 8205 2810 8205 2811 8181 2777 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 307DEG 22KT 2796 8200

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
423 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     ESE LAKELAND HIGHLANDS  27.96N 81.95W
09/26/2016  M45.00 MPH       POLK               FL   MESONET

            MESONET MEASURED WIND GUST OF 45 MPH.

&&

NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE WILLOW OAK        27.93N 82.00W
09/26/2016  M60.00 MPH       POLK               FL   MESONET

            MESONET MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

NORMAN

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