Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon-Friday)...
A bit more convective activity moving over the FL Peninsula early
this afternoon compared to last few days. Bay and west coast
seabreezes struggling but have developed right at the coastline so
expect the collisions to occur over coastal populations and
produce more numerous storms from the Nature Coast through the
Tampa Bay Area and into SW Fl in the late afternoon hours then
move over bay, harbors and coastal waters into the evening hours.

Remnant TUTT in SE Gulf continues to move further in Central Gulf
under weak and broad upper ridge over the Deep South. A bit of a
dry slot wrapping over the area as seen in WV imagery and upper
air plots between these features as well. Western Atlantic
Bermuda high pressure axis into N FL and S GA continues to weaken
with low level steering flow becoming even weaker tonight and
Friday. Expect clearing skies and near normal overnight low temps
again tonight.

With slightly lower atmospheric moisture tomorrow combining with
a stronger west coast sea breeze that will push further inland
for better coverage of scattered convection over interior areas
with only 20-30 Pops along coastal regions. Daytime temps near to
slight above climate normals Friday.

.MID/LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
A mid level trough moving into the eastern U.S and an attendant cold
front moving into the deep south at the start of the period will
help to suppress the upper and surface ridging further to the south
to be across the south-central peninsula during the weekend with a
light southwest to west flow developing over the forecast area.
Sufficient moisture combined with daytime heating will support
scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms each day with
the southwest to westerly steering flow albeit weak favoring highest
storm coverage and pops shifting to interior and eastern sections of
the peninsula during the afternoon and early evening hours. As is
typical for a southwest to west flow regime some showers and storms
will also be possible along the coast each day during the late night
and early morning hours. A weak steering flow will favor slow moving
storms with some locally heavy rains in addition to frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds.

During early next week the upper ridge will retrograde west some
over the Gulf while a large surface high builds along the eastern
seaboard. As the surface high builds in it will help to push the
aforementioned frontal trough south and southwest into the north
central peninsula as a back-door type front during late Tuesday into
Wednesday before it washes out on Thursday as the high to the north
bridges across its remains. Added moisture along this frontal trough
will keep rain chances in the scattered range each day with diurnal
sea breeze driven showers and storms expected daily with fairly
uniform coverage of storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the
overall flow will remain rather weak with convective movement and
coverage dictated by the sea breeze/outflow boundary interactions. A
more pronounced easterly flow should again develop on Thursday as
the high to the northeast takes control.

Overnight low temperatures will run above normal along the coast
with readings in the upper 70s to around 80 with mid 70s over inland
areas, while daytime highs will run near normal with highs climbing
to around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA moving over the FL Peninsula this afternoon to move
over coastal areas and near TAFs sites to keep VCTS through 00Z-
02Z Friday with brief localized IFR vsbys/cigs. VFR conditions
returning all sites overnight into Friday mid day.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the weekend
and into next week with light winds and slight seas continuing.
Only marine impacts will be brief and localized gusty winds,
increased seas and dangerous lightning in and near scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  78  91 /  40  20  10  30
FMY  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  20  40
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  20  40  20  50
SRQ  76  89  78  89 /  30  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  74  93 /  40  30  10  30
SPG  78  91  80  90 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-190815-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
403 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF
THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCKAUGHAN

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