Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered thunderstorms are in progress across central and
southwest Florida. These storms will likely result in temporary
reductions to vsbys and gusty winds, along with lightning. Showers
and storms should shift west of all terminals in the 00z to 02z
timeframe with light east winds and a prevailing VFR conditions
thereafter.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 921 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

MORNING UPDATE...
The surface ridge axis continues remains parked across northern
Florida and southern Georgia, maintaining easterly flow across the
southern two thirds of the Florida peninsula. A few showers are
already beginning to shift ashore along the east Florida coast.
Similar to yesterday, we expect a continuation of low level
easterly flow, which should allow the east coast seabreeze to
surge westward into the central Florida peninsula by early
afternoon. Thereafter, clusters of thunderstorms should develop
and move westward. Given a fairly shallow moist layer near the
surface, and expected hot afternoon temperatures, substantial low
level mixing is forecast. This environment will prove capable of
strong potentially damaging winds with any stronger thunderstorms
that manage to develop this afternoon. If this occurs, it would
likely take place shortly after thunderstorm initiation, before
convective coverage is great enough to reduce environmental
instability. As is typical with any summer thunderstorms, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning will also be a concern.
Thunderstorms will shift offshore late this afternoon into early
this evening with generally clear conditions forecast overnight.

The only changes made to the forecast were to adjust short-term
trends in PoPs and to adjust hourly temperatures to reflect
expected surface heating trends.

MARINE...
The Bermuda high continues from the Western Atlantic into the
Deep South with a moderate pressure gradient today and overnight
easterly surges for a slight bump in winds and seas today through
mid week. Gradient to relax towards the weekend with return to
pleasant boating conditions over the Gulf waters with an onshore
sea breeze component developing along the coast. Wind and seas
will be higher in the vicinity of scattered thunderstorms,
otherwise no headlines are expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Despite hot afternoon temperatures for the next few days, low
level easterly flow will maintain abundant low level moisture.
This will keep afternoon humidities well above critical levels.
This combined with daily rain chances will generally limit fire
weather concerns over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  94  78  93 /  10  40  20  50
FMY  76  93  76  93 /  10  50  20  60
GIF  75  94  76  94 /  10  40  10  50
SRQ  77  93  77  92 /  10  40  20  50
BKV  73  95  74  94 /  10  30  20  50
SPG  79  93  79  93 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-200000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
924 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP WITH
SCATTERED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
MOVING INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
103 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

FLZ052-056-191745-
POLK FL-HARDEE FL-
103 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARDEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF WAUCHULA...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAUCHULA...ONA...FORT MEADE...BOWLING GREEN...ZOLFO SPRINGS AND FORT
GREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2773 8156 2747 8157 2743 8194 2774 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 089DEG 15KT 2760 8167

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

FLZ056-057-061-191845-
HIGHLANDS FL-DESOTO FL-HARDEE FL-
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DESOTO...EASTERN
HARDEE AND NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SEBRING...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEBRING...AVON PARK...WAUCHULA...LAKE PLACID...
SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT...SYLVAN SHORES...SOUTHEAST ARCADIA...
SWEETWATER...ZOLFO SPRINGS...BROWNVILLE...GARDNER...CREWSVILLE...
LAKE JOSEPHINE...PLACID LAKES...
AVON PARK EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND SEBRING SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2757 8132 2724 8131 2717 8183 2763 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 104DEG 31KT 2740 8148

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

FLZ043-052-249-191900-
SUMTER FL-INLAND PASCO FL-POLK FL-
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SUMTER...EASTERN PASCO
AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES WEST OF FOUR CORNERS...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
AUBURNDALE...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKELAND...AUBURNDALE...ZEPHYRHILLS...DADE CITY...ST. LEO...
ZEPHYRHILLS WEST...ZEPHYRHILLS NORTH...ZEPHYRHILLS SOUTH...
LAKE ALFRED...RIDGE MANOR...POLK CITY...LACOOCHEE...RICHLAND...
ZEPHYRHILLS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...DADE CITY NORTH...
ROCKRIDGE...THE GREEN SWAMP...WITHLA AND GIBSONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8169 2814 8206 2817 8206 2817 8226
      2848 8222 2848 8206 2850 8205 2848 8196
      2835 8196 2835 8186 2836 8185 2836 8179
      2835 8179 2835 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 102DEG 28KT 2828 8181