Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
It's a typical summertime FL weather pattern now with weak broad
upper ridging over the southern tier of the U.S. as a small and
relative weakness spins over the lower Mississippi River Valley and
N Central Gulf as the northern stream jet remains well to the north.

Western Atlantic high pressure axis remains stretched over N FL and
the deep south with weak SE flow regime temp and POP scenario in a
warm, moist and unstable environment

West coast bay/seabreeze convergence to produce scattered early
afternoon thunderstorms then east coast seabreeze and outflow
boundary collisions to occur with increased convective coverage
around I-75 from the Tampa Bay area into SW FL late in the
afternoons then push back into coastal areas in the evenings.

This set up will have an impact to late day boaters and beach goers
through the weekend. So people need to remain safe and be aware for
the possibility of deadly lighting and strong gusty winds for
localized rough conditions in the vicinity of stronger late day
storms.

Temperatures run near seasonal levels with highs in the low to mid
90s, except near 90 at the beaches. Lows will generally range from
near 80 degrees at the coast to the mid 70s inland.

.Long term (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
Weak upper ridging will be in place across the area. Surface high
pressure will ridge across the area through the period from the
Atlantic with the ridge axis mainly remaining north of the area.
This will keep generally SE flow in place across the area with an
afternoon sea breeze developing each day. Scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms each day will form along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries. Temperatures will remain in the
lower to mid 90s for highs and in the mid 70s to around 80 for
lows.

&&

.Aviation...
Afternoon through evening thunderstorms continue for brief MVFR/IFR
Cigs/VSBY along with strong gusty winds and lightning in/near the
strongest cells through about 02Z. VRF conditions returning all
sites after that through the overnight hours.

&&

.Marine...
Weak high pressure north of the area to keep a light pressure
gradient in the E Gulf waters through the week and into the weekend
with light winds and slight seas. Seas 2 ft or less and afternoon
seabreezes near the coast with increased thunderstorms near the
beaches and coast that may produce strong gusty winds that would
briefly increase and chop up seas and contain deadly lightning. So
mariners need to always pay attention the weather for their safety.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Afternoon sea breezes and warm/moist July humidity values continue
along with showers and storms through the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
FMY  76  92  76  93 /  30  50  30  50
GIF  75  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  77  91  76  92 /  30  40  30  30
BKV  74  93  74  92 /  20  50  30  40
SPG  79  92  79  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-140915-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
501 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS. THEREAFTER...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WYNN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
343 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

FLZ165-265-132030-
INLAND LEE-COASTAL LEE-
343 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEE COUNTY...

AT 342 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THREE
OAKS...OR NEAR BONITA SPRINGS. THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...BONITA SPRINGS...LEHIGH ACRES...
CYPRESS LAKE...PINE MANOR...LOVERS KEY STATE PARK...
MATLACHA ISLES-MATLACHA SHORES...BUCKINGHAM...MATLACHA...
THREE OAKS...EAST DUNBAR...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORT...
SAN CARLOS PARK...PINE ISLAND CENTER...IONA...
LOCHMOOR WATERWAY ESTATES...VILLAS...MCGREGOR AND CHARLESTON PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2633 8182 2632 8187 2665 8216 2671 8157
      2642 8156 2642 8166 2632 8166 2632 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 151DEG 4KT 2642 8178

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
415 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

FLZ052-057-132100-
HIGHLANDS-POLK-
415 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SEBRING...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEBRING...LAKE PLACID...SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT...SYLVAN SHORES...
LAKE ISTOKPOGA...AVON PARK AIR FORCE RANGE...BRIGHTON...
LAKE JOSEPHINE...CORNWELL...ARCHBOLD...LORIDA...RIVER RANCH...
INDIAN LAKE ESTATES AND PLACID LAKES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2721 8116 2713 8117 2712 8127 2709 8127
      2708 8130 2744 8147 2783 8145 2784 8122
      2766 8113 2760 8114 2755 8121 2749 8121
      2744 8114 2739 8112 2736 8103 2734 8105
      2730 8103 2729 8100 2723 8097 2722 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 067DEG 6KT 2758 8127