Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
353 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows a typical summer
mid/upper level pattern in place across the CONUS this afternoon.
Main belt of northern stream westerlies is displaced far to our
north...in a mostly zonal configuration. Our our region and into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico we find synoptic upper ridging in
control. This ridge...although it will go through some minor
evolutions...will be the dominant player in our weather through
the upcoming weekend.

At the surface...subtropical ridge axis is aligned from the
Bahamas...westward across the central/southern peninsula and
across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind within the vicinity of this ridge
axis are light...with local flow dominated more by the influence
of diurnal sea and land breeze circulations.

The ridge overtop the region is resulting in some rather "toasty"
temperatures this afternoon. Locations away from the immediate
coast and that have not seen one of the isolated storms...are
generally reporting temperatures in the middle 90s. Even right at
the coast temps are in the lower 90s...as nearshore water temps
are a summery upper 80s to around 90 degrees. We have reached the
time of year where the sea-breeze is only marginally
refreshing...if at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
This evening into the overnight will see widely scattered storms
continue to develop along the cold pool outflow boundaries of the
initial storms from early this afternoon. A few of the storms may
be on the strong side due to the hot temperatures and resulting
level of available energy...however coverage of storms should stay
low due to the drier air and overall suppression from the ridge
aloft. Main concerns will be a few wind gusts to around 40 knots
and potentially some small hail. As always...frequent lightning
will be a danger.

Storms will tend to migrate mostly inland by the middle evening
hours and then dissipate completely within a few hours of sunset.
The remainder of the overnight will be warm and muggy...but
generally dry. Likely to see a weak land-breeze develop very late
tonight with may be responsible for an isolated storm or two over
the coastal waters. Generally speaking...the flow will not favor
this activity coming back toward the coast.

For the daylight hours of Friday. A similar day to Thursday is
expected. The location of a broad subtropical ridge axis directly
through the forecast area will keep the lower level winds
generally light and variable in nature. This flow pattern
generally does not favor synoptic enhancement any of the
peninsula's sea/lake breezes for convection...and storms are more
driven by localized sea-breeze interaction and cold pool boundary
collisions. Instead of areas favored for higher PoPs...the
convective distribution tends to be more spread out. Given that
the mid-levels will still not be all that favorable toward deep
convection on Friday...would anticipate another day with widely
sct level activity. Storms will be around...but most locations
will not see a downpour come directly overhead.

What will be widespread on Friday is the heat. Once again...most
spots away from the beaches will reach the middle 90s by the
middle afternoon hours...with lower 90s right to the beaches
themselves. Another day to take the necessary heat precautions is
expecting to do an strenuous or extended actions outdoors.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM...
Above normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend
and into the early part of next week. The ridge axis will remained
positioned over the peninsula through the weekend keeping winds
light with daily development of seabreeze boundaries. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected for both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with the best chances across the southern half of
the area and more toward the interior where the best moisture and
convergence will set up.

Into next week, models forecast the ridge axis to move a bit north
allowing a SE flow to become established over the area. This should
allow for rain chances to return to near climatological norms with
PoPs in the 40-50 range for early next week.

Temperatures will remain hot through the weekend with lower to mid
90s expected for much of the area with heat indices well above 100
and even nearing 105 in spots at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
A scattering of afternoon storms have developed across the region
as of 3 PM. The strongest have been in the vicinity of
KPIE/KTPA...but are now moving away from these terminals.
Elsewhere...a brief storm is possible through 00Z...but otherwise
general VFR should be expected for all terminals through the
remainder of the TAF period. Toward the very end of the period
16-18Z on Friday the threat for VCTS will again develop around
KPIE and KTPA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LOW. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST EARLY EACH MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  93  79  93 /  10  20   0  10
FMY  78  94  78  94 /  10  20  20  40
GIF  78  96  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  79  93  78  91 /  10  20   0  20
BKV  74  94  74  93 /   0  20   0  10
SPG  81  93  81  92 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...Mroczka
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...McKaughan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-080915-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
512 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE