Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4
CORRIDOR...
...GALE WARNING TODAY NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED
WITH DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. THE BAND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
WEDGE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR AS SEEN IN W/V IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MODIFIES AND
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AND LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-4.

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WATER TO
PILE UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE BUILD UP OF WATER WILL BE PUSHED
TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A SURGE OF WATER ALONG THE COAST
WHICH WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES
IN THE CEDAR KEY AREA...AND AROUND 1 FOOT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.  THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO CREATE HIGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION.  THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH
THE SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL STILL LOOKING LIKE A POTENT SYSTEM WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS/GUSTY SHOWERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH IT QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE NEXT SHOT OF MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY
MIDWEEK THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. AN ISOLD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS GUSTING
TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...WITH
SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS.  THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  62  77  62 /  90   0  10  70
FMY  79  63  80  64 /  90   0   0  70
GIF  76  58  80  59 /  90   0  10  70
SRQ  75  63  76  62 /  90   0  10  70
BKV  75  55  77  57 / 100   0  10  70
SPG  75  63  76  61 /  90   0  10  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
     INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE

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