Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
309 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Sunday)...
A strong U/L ridge over the central Atlantic will maintain a
ridge axis across the southeast U.S. and Florida through Sunday.
Surface high pressure will also hold over the forecast area with
the ridge axis remaining north of the region which will keep
southeast boundary layer flow across west central and southwest
Florida. This will act to hold the west coast sea breeze boundary
near the coast Sunday afternoon which will be the focus for mid to
late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A TUTT cell will move
over the Florida peninsula tonight and will push slowly northwest
to the Florida panhandle on Sunday. This will place west central
Florida on the east side of the TUTT on Sunday which will allow
for an increase in deep layer moisture, increasing instability,
with an increase in areal coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees
above climatic normals.

.LONG TERM MID/LONG TERM...(Monday Night through next
Saturday)...
An upper level ridge builds in across the southeast U.S. through
midweek then begins to weaken as an inverted trough aloft moves
across the Bahamas WED then FL on THU. Long wave troughiness
builds down the eastern seaboard to the FL trough at the end of
the work week. This troughiness then begins to shift east during
the weekend. Atlantic high pressure ridges westward...across the
southeast U.S. coast to the lower Mississippi Valley through THU.
The ridge slips into northern FL FRI and central FL SAT with a
relaxing pressure gradient.

The atmosphere remains moist with PWAT values running from 1.5 to
over 2 inches at times. This will support showers and thunderstorms
in the scattered...but occasionally numerous...range with some
variation day to day. Initially the gradient will be tight enough to
limit sea breezes to near the coast...focusing the greatest
shower/storms coverage there in the afternoons and early evenings.
But as the gradient slackens the sea breezes will be able to push
farther inland...with higher shower/storms coverage over the
interior. Temperatures will be near normal for the highs while the
lows run just above.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours.  Scattered thunderstorms may
impact primarily PIE/TPA/SRQ/LAL late this afternoon/early this
evening.  Skies will become mostly clear at all terminals after
midnight. Better chance of thunderstorms impacting all terminals
Sunday afternoon with local MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain over the waters through the period
with winds generally less than 15 knots with seas less than 4 feet
each day. Main hazard will be mainly nocturnal and early morning
scattered thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds a
rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High dew points across west central and southwest Florida will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  90  78  93 /  20  50  30  50
FMY  76  91  77  92 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  75  92  76  92 /  10  50  10  50
SRQ  76  90  77  92 /  20  50  30  50
BKV  73  92  75  93 /  20  50  30  50
SPG  78  90  79  92 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-140845-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
445 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLEMING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
321 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

FLZ160-162-260-132000-
COASTAL SARASOTA FL-COASTAL CHARLOTTE FL-INLAND SARASOTA FL-
321 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARASOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH PORT...LAUREL...GROVE CITY...ROTONDA...PLACIDA...PALM ISLAND...
NOKOMIS...OSCAR SCHERER STATE PARK...SOUTH VENICE...WARM MINERAL
SPRINGS...GULF COVE...EL JOBEAN...VENICE GARDENS AND OSPREY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2693 8243 2713 8256 2726 8237 2690 8214
      2680 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 143DEG 19KT 2692 8228

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
413 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

FLZ239-132045-
INLAND LEVY FL-
413 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHIEFLAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHIEFLAND...ANDREWS...MANATTEE ROAD AND FANNING SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 8285 2958 8276 2945 8268 2940 8283
      2956 8295 2958 8294 2959 8294 2959 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 145DEG 14KT 2950 8280