Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

March 26, 2016Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 26, 2016, 5:43 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 32 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 26, 2016, 5:43 PM EDT (21:43 UTC)
Expired: Mar 26, 2016, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Polk County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 26, 5:55 PM EDT	HAIL 1	5 W Loughman, FL	QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN DAVENPORT NEAR INTERSTATE 4 AND US 27 LASTING FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.
Mar 26, 6:00 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Nnw Davenport, FL	SHED DESTROYED. STORM DOORS PUSHED IN AND HINGES TWISTED OFF.
Mar 26, 6:00 PM EDT	HAIL 1.5	4 Nnw Davenport, FL	WALNUT SIZED HAIL REPORTED ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 ON HIGHWAY 27.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 12 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 918 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1089 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

517 
WUUS52 KTBW 262143
SVRTBW
FLC105-262215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0022.160326T2143Z-160326T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
543 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 542 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHAMPIONS
  GATE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAINES CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINTER HAVEN...HAINES CITY...LAKE ALFRED...DAVENPORT AND LOUGHMAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2803 8173 2831 8186 2835 8179 2835 8166
      2826 8166 2826 8156 2820 8153 2816 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 243DEG 23KT 2825 8171 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

05

1 follow-up statement

505 
WWUS52 KTBW 262158
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLC105-262215-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160326T2215Z/
POLK FL-
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

AT 557 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHAMPIONS GATE...
OR NEAR CELEBRATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVENPORT AND LOUGHMAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2812 8159 2828 8177 2834 8173 2835 8166
      2826 8166 2826 8156 2820 8153 2816 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 243DEG 23KT 2830 8161 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

05

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 26, 3:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 26, 3:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CANADAIN PRAIRIES TO
NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION.
SURFACE - A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO WEST
TX...A STALLED FRONT WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH-
EASTERN STATES...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS FL TO
THE EAST GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS AND LIFTS...STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS IT MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THE AREA BUT ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE SOME. THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS EAST...REACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN OUT OVER THE GULF WHILE THE FRONT ON THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUN
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ATLANTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL
BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.

WHILE THE FEATURES NOTED ABOVE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THE EFFECT ON
THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED...WITH THE PATTERN OF TODAY REPEATING ON
SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST GULF AND WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THE MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CHANCE TO
LIKELY MAINLY AFTERNOON COVERAGE REACHING DOWN THE STATE. THE
GREATEST ODDS WILL IN THE NORTH AND INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG TOWARD BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...NUDGING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
LEAVING A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS...
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75. SOME DRIER AIR MAY FILTER IN NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THERE ON TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FEW IF ANY
STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN ANOTHER MESSY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER BUT SLOWER...DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO
TEXAS LEAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. PREVAILING VFR UNDER BKN HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE OPTED FOR
VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TSRA THAT MAY DRIFT BACK
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE BUT LIGHT FLOW. ANTICIPATE SOME LATE
NIGHT BR BUT LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER HAVE SCT
STRATUS UNDER A BKN LOW VFR DECK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS SLIDES EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
A DIFFUSE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH MID-WEEK AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY. WINDS
VEER AROUND AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THERE ARE NO
CONCERNS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND BOTH
WINDS AND ERC VALUES STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  81  71  81 /  20  10  30  40
FMY  71  86  71  86 /  20  10  20  30
GIF  70  85  70  84 /  40  30  30  50
SRQ  70  79  70  79 /  10   0  20  30
BKV  69  84  68  81 /  30  30  40  40
SPG  71  80  71  81 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 26, 4:37 AM EDT, 13 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
437 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-270845-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
437 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 26, 4:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
415 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ043-052-248-249-251-262100-
INLAND HERNANDO-SUMTER-INLAND PASCO-POLK-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
415 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUMTER... NORTHEASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHEASTERN HERNANDO...EASTERN PASCO AND
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BUSHNELL TO NEAR HILLSBOROUGH RIVER
STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZEPHYRHILLS...DADE CITY...BUSHNELL...ST. LEO...ZEPHYRHILLS SOUTH...
HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE PARK...ZEPHYRHILLS WEST...ZEPHYRHILLS NORTH...
WESLEY CHAPEL SOUTH...RIDGE MANOR...SAN ANTONIO...CENTER HILL...WEBSTER...
TARRYTOWN...ZEPHYRHILLS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KATHLEEN...CROOM...MEADOW
POINTE...THE GREEN SWAMP AND SUMTERVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 2863 8226 2884 8196 2835 8196 2834 8194
      2811 8198 2807 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 202DEG 13KT 2860 8215 2813 8227

Special weather statement, Mar 26, 5:07 PM EDT, 36 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
507 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ043-052-242-248-249-251-262145-
INLAND HERNANDO-SUMTER-INLAND PASCO-POLK-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-
507 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SUMTER...NORTHEASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH...EASTERN HERNANDO...EASTERN PASCO...NORTHWESTERN POLK
AND SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MASCOTTE TO 14 MILES
NORTH OF COMBEE SETTLEMENT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKELAND...PLANT CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BROOKSVILLE...WILDWOOD...DADE CITY...
BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...ST. LEO...ZEPHYRHILLS SOUTH...ZEPHYRHILLS
NORTH...HILL 'N DALE...ZEPHYRHILLS WEST...INVERNESS HIGHLANDS SOUTH...
INVERNESS AIRPORT...SOUTH BROOKSVILLE...NORTH BROOKSVILLE...SUGARMILL
WOODS...LAKE PANASOFFKEE AND RIDGE MANOR.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 2896 8206 2896 8196 2835 8196 2834 8186
      2836 8185 2836 8180 2834 8179 2834 8165
      2795 8208 2873 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 240DEG 13KT 2848 8199 2827 8192

Local storm report, Mar 26, 5:18 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
518 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             5 N PLANT CITY          28.08N 82.14W
03/26/2016  E0.25 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT SR 39 AND KNIGHTS GRIFFIN ROAD
            NORTH OF PLANT CITY.

&&

JHUBBARD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 26, 3:25 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Levy	35 min
Mar 26, 4:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Sumter	45 min
Mar 26, 5:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Sumter	38 min
Mar 26, 6:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Polk	20 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.