Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
Lots to talk about this morning. Tropical Storm Colin is now near
southeast Georgia and continuing to pull rapidly away from the area.
All tropical storm warnings are discontinued with this forecast
cycle.  Residual hazards will remain with us through the rest of the
day.

First, a well defined low-level convergence boundary is set up
southwest to northeast right across the Tampa Bay area. Add to that
the tropical airmass in place, and we have a recipe for more showers
and storms. This boundary could meander north or south at times
today, but feel it will remain far enough south to remove Levy
county from the current flood watch. Everywhere south of Levy could
still see heavy rainfall with training of convective cells. If we
see enough sunshine, afternoon heating will intensify the effect.

Second, winds are still fairly strong, with gusts frequently in the
30 to 40 mph range. Sustained winds should remain below any
threshold requiring an advisory.

Third, the persistent onshore flow along with large waves in the
Gulf will create dangerous rip currents and high surf for most of
the day. Not a great day for the beach, and quite dangerous even for
strong swimmers. Tides will be running around a foot above normal,
which could continue to cause some minor flooding during high tide.
Water levels should return to normal later this afternoon as winds
and waves subside.

Most hazards should be done by tonight. the weak surface trough left
behind by Colin could still serve as a focus for nocturnal
thunderstorms over the Gulf. Steering flow would bring these on
shore south of the trough axis, which should be a little farther
south. Best rain chances overnight will be south of the Tampa Bay
area.

On Wednesday, a rather deep upper-level trough will be passing by to
the north of the state. The weak surface trough begins to lose it's
identity, but also lifts a bit to the north in response to the upper-
level trough. It should be rather cloudy...but any heating at all
will help to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highest
rain chances on Wednesday will be from Hillsborough/Polk counties
southward. Activity should migrate inland as well.

The temperature forecast is a bit tricky since just a couple hours
of sunshine would allow us to reach 90 degrees or so. Temperatures
both days will be warmest over our northern zones where more
sunshine peaks through, but should remain mainly in the 80s both
days south of about interstate four.

.LONG TERM (Thursday - Monday)...
A couple of upper lows track across Quebec then New England...
maintaining troughiness over the Atlantic. An upper ridge from the
Desert Southwest to central Canada is reinforced by ridging
building northwest from the Gulf of Mexico as the western ridge
moves east...stretching from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes by
Mon. Surface high pressure sprawling down the Mississippi valley
tracks into the southeast CONUS by Thu then ridges east over the
Atlantic while a weak trough extends from the Atlantic across the
south half of the state into the Gulf. The high pressure sags down
into the gulf and FL for Fri through Mon.

The surface trough across the area provides some deep moisture...
model PWAT values run 2 inches and well above at times...through Fri.
Then as the high pressure settles in the PWAT values drop down from
around 2 inches to about 1.5 inches. This moisture along with day time
heating and sea breeze circulations in the relaxed pressure field will
support showers and thunderstorms. Shower/storm coverage will be isolated
to scattered to locally numerous through Fri. Then as slightly drier air
works in coverage will be isolated to scattered. Temperatures will be
around normal to just above...by a degree or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
We will see continued slow improvement through today. Widespread
MVFR conditions will gradually give way to VFR, except in the
vicinity of heavier showers where MVFR and even IFR conditions will
occur. Most likely terminals to see IFR are PIE, TPA, and LAL. Gusty
winds will continue through much of the day, then taper off toward
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite the discontinuation of tropical storm warnings, winds and
seas will continue to pose a hazard to small craft operators. Winds
and seas are beginning to drop well offshore, but continue at
hazardous levels in our waters. Winds and seas should decrease below
small craft advisory levels by late this afternoon or this evening.
The rest of the week looks better, with winds remaining at or below
15 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters
through Thursday associated with the remnant trough, but should
become more widely scattered toward the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very wet conditions prevail in the wake of tropical storm Colin. No
fire weather issues expected next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  85  78  88  77 / 100  20  50  40
FMY  86  78  85  76 /  50  40  70  40
GIF  86  76  89  75 /  90  30  70  30
SRQ  84  78  87  76 /  90  40  60  50
BKV  85  75  89  73 / 100  20  40  30
SPG  85  78  87  78 / 100  30  50  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal
     Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Jillson
MID TERM/LONG TERM...Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...Paxton/Mroczka