Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
903 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
...GULF BEACH EROSION THREAT THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
WATCHING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATION
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...CONDITIONS OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO BE BENIGN WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO MESH WELL WITH OBSERVED TRENDS AND
EXPECTED TIMING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED OFF THE OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

ONE AREA I WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ADDRESS IS THE NEED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD/BEACH HAZARDS PRODUCT. HIGH SURF BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE ANYTHING THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST
FEW YEARS WITH 10 FEET BEING POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES. THIS WILL
CREATE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF BEACH EROSION ALONG THE BEACHES OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE STRONG WINDS AND MAD SEAS
WILL ALSO CREATE A DANGEROUS THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL MAKE
SWIMMING AT AREA BEACHES HAZARDOUS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND DISCUSSES THIS FURTHER IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK /SWODY2/. THE BEST DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO BE
EVIDENT IN THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY SPC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY RESTRICTIONS LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT
IFR/LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVY RAINS DURING STORMS IF
THEY IMPACT A TERMINAL DIRECTLY. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT MORE
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES AT ALL TERMINALS BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERTAKE THE
WATERS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
AND TWEAKED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE TAMPA BAY AND
CHARLOTTE HARBOR/PINE ISLAND SOUND AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS THROUGH SATURDAY AT A MINIMUM...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  70  51  56 /  10  90  30  30
FMY  61  73  57  64 /  20  90  20  20
GIF  59  71  50  58 /   0  90  20  10
SRQ  61  69  55  60 /  10  90  30  30
BKV  56  69  48  53 /   0  90  30  30
SPG  62  70  53  58 /  10  90  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...84/AUSTIN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...18/FLEMING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
748 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-230100-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
748 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE WEE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING STORM
SYSTEM. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
EASTWARD COVERING ALL OF THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS BY
SUNRISE...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN
ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
FRONT...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF...DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG ALL OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

AUSTIN