Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
329 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Local radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon.
Further development across eastern portions of our area is expected
as the day goes on, but most of the coverage will stay in the
western and northern parts of our forecast area this afternoon and
evening. Overnight minimum temperatures will hover around the mid
70s, upper 70s along the immediate coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Mid level trough extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the
southern Plains will generally move eastward through the short term
period and support a weak cold front as it moves southeastward. The
front will remain north of the CWA Sunday and thus the best low
level convergence will reside north as well. PWATs remain around 1.8
inches through much of the area with a slight bump to 2 inches
across southeast Alabama and have tapered higher PoPs in that
direction.

By Monday, mid level high pressure slides underneath the mid level
trough across the Gulf of Mexico and effectively stalls the surface
cold front near the I-10 corridor. PWATs up to 2 inches and low
level convergence across the central and southern portions of the
CWA will warrant a good chances for storms Monday afternoon.

High temperatures each day will reach the lower to mid 90s. If
clouds are more abundant Monday, high temperatures may be a little
lower than forecast.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Mid level high reasserts itself across the southern and southeast
CONUS at the beginning of the long term. Weak cold front will
dissipate Tuesday with surface high pressure near the mouth of
the Mississippi controlling the surface flow with weak northerly
flow. Surface high pressure ridge sliding down the Appalachians
will cause winds to become more easterly Wednesday and Thursday.
An inverted trough moving towards the lower Atlantic coast will
cause winds to back to the northeast towards the weekend. Diurnal
convection will continue through the period. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Storms have already begun to pop up, but are widely scattered and
may not directly affect our local TAF sites. These storms are not
expected to linger very long into the overnight hours. Brief MVFR
ceilings may be possible once again tomorrow morning near DHN and
ABY, but confidence was too low to put in this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain across the northern Gulf of
Mexico coastal waters through the upcoming week. Winds will
generally remain below 15 knots and seas will be 2 feet or less.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue.
However, there are no widespread flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  40  20
Panama City   79  87  78  88  78 /  10  30  10  30  20
Dothan        74  92  74  92  74 /  20  40  20  40  20
Albany        75  93  74  93  74 /  20  30  20  40  20
Valdosta      74  93  74  94  75 /  10  20  10  40  20
Cross City    75  92  75  94  76 /  10  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  77  88  78  89  78 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...DVD/Scholl

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