Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A tropical airmass will remain in place tonight with PWAT values
over 2 inches. Scattered convection across the eastern half of the
area is expected to increase in coverage a bit more through the
early evening hours before starting to diminish after sunset. With
light steering flow, localized pockets of heavy rainfall amounts
can be expected. Later tonight, convection is expected to become
more numerous offshore and affect areas near the coast closer to
sunrise. Overnight lows will be muggy with the tropical airmass in
place with generally mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A weakness in the upper level pattern between a Southern Plains
Ridge and the subtropical Atlantic ridge will remain in place over
the local region for the next couple of days. A northeast-southwest
oriented surface trough will also hold tight and actually deepen as
we get into the weekend. Total precipitable water will remain above
climo over 2 inches. This will translate into a an unsettled pattern
with above climo PoPs and a threat for locally heavy rains that
could dump a quick 2-4 inches in isolated spots. Min temps will
remain above long-term climo in the mid 70s, although honestly this
appears to be the new norm for summer mins. Clouds and rain may hold
max temps a bit below climo over our southern zones, but northern
areas will be a bit hotter.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Due to the weakness of the upper level ridges, an upper low over the
western panhandle is able to close off Sunday. On Sunday night,
abroad surface low forms to the north of our CWA and begins to drift
southwestward and be in south AL/MS by Tuesday. It will then remain
to our west for the remainder of the long term. The surface low will
cause an increase in onshore flow from the Gulf. This added moisture
influx will keep PoPs above climo each day and night. Due to the
increase in convection, highs will be a bit cooler in the low 90s to
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

[Through 18z Friday] VFR conditions with light winds will prevail
outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will primarily affect
TLH, ABY and VLD terminals but are possible at ECP and DHN.
Convection should begin to clear out around sunset. Around 10Z-
13Z, light fog may be possible at terminals who receive rain but
confidence is not high enough to put conditions lower than MVFR
at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Gulf of
Mexico south of the marine area through the weekend, maintaining
generally west to southwest flow around 10 knots and seas around 2
feet. Low pressure will begin to settle closer to the Gulf Coast
early next week increasing winds and seas by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather concerns are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

High rain rates could cause isolated nuisance flooding over the next
couple of days. However, we are starting to get more concerned that
next week's pattern could set us up for a more widespread flood
threat. Rivers are quite low, but could fill up as we work our way
through next week. A bigger concern is the potential for flash
flooding. Some of the CAMs are showing very high QPF. We could
easily see widespread multi-day rainfall totals in the 4 to 6 inch
range east of where the surface low sets up with locally higher
amounts several inches higher than those numbers. It seems quite
reasonable that with prolonged PW above already climatologically
high norms in a pattern as unsettled as the one that will be
developing that flooding with be a primary threat. We will remain
focused on this and begin trying to narrow down potential event
totals and the most likely areas for flooding as we work through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  90  76  91  76 /  40  70  30  60  30
Panama City   78  88  79  89  80 /  50  60  30  60  20
Dothan        73  92  74  94  74 /  30  60  30  40  20
Albany        73  92  74  94  75 /  40  60  40  40  20
Valdosta      73  89  74  91  74 /  40  70  30  60  20
Cross City    74  86  75  87  75 /  70  70  50  70  50
Apalachicola  78  87  79  88  79 /  50  60  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool/Chaney
AVIATION...DVD/Chaney
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Wool

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

FLZ017-026-027-042115-
LEON FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
425 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY...
NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA AND SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST CAMP...CLIO...JEWEL FIRE TOWER...BROWN HOUSE...BLOXHAM...
POPLAR CAMP...HELEN...HILLIARDVILLE...SMITH CREEK AND FORT BRADEN.

LAT...LON 3031 8490 3045 8446 3027 8432 3002 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 060DEG 10KT 3027 8458

11-MOORE