Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

After a delayed start we are beginning to see convection fire up
along the seabreeze. Expect seabreeze activity to be mostly limited
to the Florida panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are also
expected to move into the Georgia counties from the northeast. PoPs
decrease after sunset, with only 20-30% chance of rain for the
eastern third of the area. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Mid/Upper level height center remains anchored over the southern
Plains while another height center is located in the western
Atlantic. There is a break in the ridge in the form of an upper
trough along the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure
will continue to dominate with adjoining high centers across the
lower Mississippi River Valley and the Midwest.

As the upper trough slides south through Thursday, the southeast
CONUS will be placed in an area of increased diffluence aloft. Along
with a slight increase in mid/upper level lift and low/mid level
moisture, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
Steering flow will be from the northeast which should pin seabreeze
activity to I-10 and southward and favor activity across the western
FL Big Bend areas. As well, there are hints of development across
northern GA with activity moving into the area from the north.
Thermodynamic profiles favor at least some isolated strong to
locally damaging wind gusts, which SPC has outlooked our area with a
marginal risk of severe weather, favoring damaging wind gusts across
the entire CWA.

The trough moves east for Friday with the central CONUS ridge
building back in. A sharp decrease in mid level moisture will advect
in for Friday afternoon which will have an overall decrease in
thunderstorm chances Friday. Still, isolated coverage of storms is
expected Friday afternoon favoring the typical seabreeze zones and
along and south of I-10.

For temperatures, NAM MOS appears too low with highs Thursday
given its advertisement of higher chances of precipitation and
more cloud cover. Leaned this forecast towards the GFS and MOS
guidance as this appears more reasonable. 30-40% PoP Thursday and
30% PoP Friday with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s for
highs. It is noteworthy that most guidance is above 40% for PoPs
Thursday. Although not out of the question, I would like to see
more of the mid/upper level ingredients further south and west
into our CWA.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The upper level ridge pattern over the southeast will begin to break
down over the weekend, leading to an increase in the coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms. Afternoon PoPs will therefore increase to
around 50% by Sunday and high temperatures will cool somewhat to the
mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast. The region will then
remain between a ridge positioned over the central plains and
another ridge in the western Atlantic through most of the long term
period. As such, PoPs in the afternoon are expected to be in the 40-
50% range through Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday, ridging from the
western Atlantic will begin building back into the region, which
will decrease PoPs and increase high temperatures back to the upper
90s inland. Throughout the period, heat indices should exceed 100
and possibly approach 105.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions will continue through the period with vicinity
thunderstorms possible at all sites this afternoon. MVFR fog is
possible at ABY, DHN and VLD around sunrise, however, confidence was
not high enough to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the northern
Gulf Coast. As a result, winds will generally remain 10 knots or
less and seas of 2 feet or less. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each day, favoring the overnight
periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
are expected each day. There are no widespread flooding concerns
at this time. However, stronger and slower moving storms will have
the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall producing ponding
or standing of water in low lying and poorly draining areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  97  75  97  75 /  10  40  30  30  20
Panama City   79  92  78  91  79 /  10  40  20  30  10
Dothan        75  96  74  96  75 /  20  40  30  30  10
Albany        75  98  73  98  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      74  96  73  96  74 /  30  30  20  30  20
Cross City    74  95  73  95  74 /  30  30  30  30  20
Apalachicola  77  90  77  90  78 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...King/Scholl
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
713 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

FLZ019-028-029-202345-
LAFAYETTE FL-INLAND TAYLOR FL-MADISON FL-
713 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISON...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEE...BUCKVILLE...HOPEWELL...DAY...MAYO JUNCTION AND CHANCEY.

LAT...LON 3035 8321 3031 8321 3029 8323 3026 8324
      3025 8325 3025 8324 3023 8325 3023 8324
      3011 8330 3031 8361 3048 8333 3038 8319
      3035 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 042DEG 17KT 3037 8331

42-DVD