Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the FL
Panhandle and Big Bend regions early this afternoon, and will
continue to expand northward through the rest of the afternoon and
early evening. Latest mesoanalysis from the SPC shows PWAT
values from 1.9-2.1" across our area, and combined with sea breeze
forcing and SBCAPE from 2500-4000 J/kg, will keep likely PoPs in
place across much of our area. A weak upper level shortwave may
maintain some convection across SW Georgia for a few hours this
evening, but otherwise expect most showers and storms to dissipate
by sunset. A few isolated storms may persist overnight offshore
and near the coast, but generally dry conditions will prevail
inland during this time. Lows will be in the low-mid 70s inland
and upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper ridging will build west of the area on Monday into Tuesday
with north to northeast flow aloft. Scattered convection is
expected each day with PoPs mainly in the 40-50% range, which is
near the seasonal average. Highs are expected to be generally be
in the mid 90s away from the coast with heat indices maxing out in
the 100-105 range over most areas. Overnight lows are expected to
be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Upper ridging will continue west of the area through the extended
with north to northeast flow aloft. A few shortwaves in the flow
are expected to help to enhance convection across the area in
the mid to late week time frame. Highs will generally be in the
mid 90s with peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 18z Monday] Scattered showers and storms will continue to
expand in coverage this afternoon, starting out near TLH and ECP
and possibly impacting DHN, ABY, and VLD during the late afternoon
or early evening. With scattered coverage and uncertainty in exact
timing, will leave prevailing VFR in TAFs for now. Brief
reductions in visibility to MVFR/IFR could occur in heavier
showers and thunderstorms. Any remaining showers and storms will
dissipate this evening as instability decreases, and VFR
conditions are expected to prevail overnight and Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds, generally 10 knots or less, and seas 2 feet or less
will continue over the next week. Seas may reach up to 3 feet on
Monday and Tuesday, but this should be confined to the offshore
areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the
best chances in the overnight to mid morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns with relative humidity values
remaining well above critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While rain is expected each day, heavy rain will be isolated. Thus
localized flooding and ponding of water is possible, however
widespread flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  95  74  95  75 /  10  50  30  50  30
Panama City   78  88  78  89  78 /  20  50  20  50  30
Dothan        74  93  73  93  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
Albany        73  94  74  94  75 /  30  50  30  40  20
Valdosta      73  93  74  93  74 /  30  50  30  50  20
Cross City    73  95  73  95  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  91  76  90  76 /  20  40  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

FLZ010-012>014-112-171900-
INLAND GULF FL-COASTAL BAY FL-INLAND BAY FL-CALHOUN FL-WASHINGTON FL-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BAY...NORTHWESTERN
GULF...SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT/...

AT 213 PM EDT/113 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CALLAWAY...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANAMA CITY...LYNN HAVEN...CALLAWAY...SPRINGFIELD...HILAND PARK...
TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE...PARKER...GAINER SPRING...BAYOU GEORGE...
RIVERSIDE...NIXON...MILLVILLE...CAMP FLOWERS...FOUNTAIN...
RECOTA BEACH...VICKSBURG...SOUTHPORT...COLLEGE STATION...
BAY HARBOR AND BENNETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 8566 3055 8538 3010 8532 3006 8558
      3018 8571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 046DEG 6KT 3021 8544

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

FLZ011-016-GAZ155-156-171900-
JACKSON FL-GADSDEN FL-DECATUR GA-SEMINOLE GA-
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN...JACKSON...
DECATUR AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT/...

AT 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHATTAHOOCHEE...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF QUINCY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...SNEADS...FAIRCHILD...MOUNT PLEASANT...
SEMINOLE STATE PARK...RIVER JUNCTION...HARDIN HEIGHTS...JINKS...
DELLWOOD...ROSEDALE...RECOVERY...DRAKES STILL...
LAKE SEMINOLE AND REYNOLDSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8469 3061 8491 3083 8506 3089 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 159DEG 19KT 3069 8480

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
248 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ155-156-171915-
DECATUR GA-SEMINOLE GA-
248 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR AND EAST
CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAINBRIDGE...WEST BAINBRIDGE...ATTAPULGUS...BRINSON...HANOVER...
FOWLSTOWN...DECATUR CO A/P...CYRENE AND FACEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 8448 3071 8470 3096 8480 3100 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 157DEG 25KT 3081 8457

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

FLZ008>011-172000-
JACKSON FL-HOLMES FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-WASHINGTON FL-
208 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN WALTON...HOLMES AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BONIFAY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHIPLEY...BONIFAY...GRACEVILLE...LIVE OAK...COTTONDALE...
PONCE DE LEON...CARYVILLE...WESTVILLE...CAMPBELLTON...
RICHTER CROSSROADS...BAKER SETTLEMENT...HICKORY HILL...PROSPERITY...
KNOX HILL...GRITNEY...BAHOMA...MILLER CROSSROADS...
ARRANT SETTLEMENT...BETHLEHEM AND KYNESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 8534 3067 8570 3055 8581 3064 8603
      3082 8603 3096 8583 3097 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 159DEG 8KT 3074 8574

ADL