Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection this afternoon is spreading into Southern Georgia, with a
fair amount of storms still developing back near the coast in the
Florida Big bend. Should see fairly high coverage of storms this
afternoon so have increased PoPs through the evening to near 60
percent across the eastern half of the region. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to diminish between 10pm and 12am, much like last
night. Expect another round of offshore convection overnight as well
getting started perhaps around 3-4am. Patchy fog inland will be
possible tonight, especially at locations that received heavy
rainfall this afternoon/evening. Lows will continue to be on the
warm side, generally in the mid to upper 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A weak upper level +PV anomaly over the Great Lakes will swing
eastward across the northeast through Sunday night. The associated
enhanced upper level divergence may help aid or sustain storm
development in our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties.
Otherwise, the main forcing mechanisms for thunderstorms this
weekend will be the north Florida sea-breeze front, the Atlantic sea-
breeze front and outflow boundaries from collapsing storms. This
will make for another active couple of days with 40-50% chances for
storms across much of the area. Maximum temperatures will be in the
low to mid 90s, with maximum apparent temperatures around 100.
Minimum temperatures will dip to the low to mid 70s overnight.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Broad upper level high pressure will build over much of the southern
CONUS next week with a few short waves swinging across the Great
Lakes and northeast throughout the week. Around the mid-week, some
of the models show one of these waves amplifying and digging into
the Appalachians. This will increase our chances for showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the mid 90s
and lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue moving north today,
affecting primarily the TLH/VLD/ABY terminals. Conditions may drop
to IFR levels at times in these storms. After 01z, expect storms
to diminish considerably. With all the storm activity near the
TLH/VLD/ABY terminals today, anticipate MVFR/IFR vsbys possible
before sunrise at these sites. Any restrictions should end by 13z
with VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and seas will prevail through at least mid next week.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be highest in the
late night and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread significant flooding is not expected for the next several
days. However, isolated flooding and quick rises on rapid response
(smaller basin) rivers may occur with localized heavy rainfall from
daily sea-breeze thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  92  73  93  75 /  20  30  10  40  20
Panama City   79  88  77  89  78 /  30  30  10  30  10
Dothan        74  90  73  93  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
Albany        74  93  74  94  75 /  30  40  30  40  20
Valdosta      75  94  74  94  74 /  20  40  20  40  20
Cross City    75  92  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  79  90  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Moore

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

GAZ157-151845-
GRADY GA-
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHIGHAM...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CAIRO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAIRO...WHIGHAM...RENO...NICKLEVILLE AND PRINCES STILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8414 3074 8438 3088 8438 3097 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 251DEG 8KT 3078 8433

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

GAZ142-143-151900-
EARLY GA-MILLER GA-
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EARLY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DONALSONVILLE. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAKIN...ENTERPRISE...MAYHAW...KILLARNEY...SAFFOLD AND HOWARDS MILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3112 8478 3107 8487 3107 8502 3108 8503
      3111 8503 3112 8506 3115 8506 3127 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 220DEG 4KT 3110 8498

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

FLZ017-027-151945-
LEON FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDVILLE...BROWN HOUSE...FORT BRADEN...BLOXHAM AND SMITH CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 8466 3018 8467 3019 8468 3022 8468
      3023 8470 3025 8470 3025 8471 3026 8473
      3027 8474 3029 8473 3032 8470 3033 8471
      3041 8460 3045 8452 3045 8451 3021 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 250DEG 12KT 3026 8464

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

FLZ017-152000-
LEON FL-
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE COMM COLLEGE...
OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLAHASSEE...INNOVATION PARK...TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL A/P...LAKE
BRADFORD...LEON SINKS...ANDREW...HELEN AND LAKE MUNSON.

LAT...LON 3041 8449 3043 8431 3030 8431 3030 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 255DEG 20KT 3032 8445

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW NICKLEVILLE        30.80N 84.35W
07/15/2016                   GRADY              GA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND LIMBS DOWN ON POWER LINES NEAR FARMERS BRANCH
            RD AS WELL AS OTHER SCATTERED AREAS IN DECATUR AND GRADY
            COUNTIES.

&&

MOORE

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