Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

TSRA expected to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
Especially across TLH/DHN/ECP. Less coverage further east towards
ABY and VLD. Gusty winds will be possible with the storms as well
as brief reductions to vsbys and cigs. VFR expected outside of
convection. Tstms will decrease in coverage after sunset leaving
behind VFR across the board. Winds after sunset will be light to
nearly calm. ECP may experience a few SHRA after sunrise
Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1030 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

WV imagery this morning depicts an area of +PV over the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as a weaker area over the north-
central/northeast Gulf. South-southwesterly steering flow, coupled
with at least near normal PWAT values across the Tri-State region
will favor one of the wetter seabreeze regimes this afternoon.
Expect the northern Gulf +PV anomaly to enhance coverage of storms
across our far western Alabama and Florida counties. Outflow from
what will likely be a large area of convection will merge with our
local seabreeze and result in higher than climo PoPs (even for the
wet regime), primarily west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee
rivers. Elsewhere, scattered seabreeze convection will spread
through north Florida this afternoon, into south Georgia this
evening. As was the case yesterday, a few storms may become severe
with a marginally favorable summertime thermodynamic environment.
The main threat would be damaging winds.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

A deep layer ridge will be centered near or just south of our
forecast area. The mean 1000-700 mb mean wind will be light from an
onshore direction, which typically correlates to scattered
thunderstorms across the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, becoming more
isolated farther north in central GA and AL. Forecast deep layer
moisture and buoyancy values appear to be near average, so climatological
PoPs seems reasonable, and are in good agreement with MOS and CAM
guidance. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s, and lows in
the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Our forecast area will be situated between 500 mb highs- one over
NM and the other in the subtropical Atlantic (i.e. the "Bermuda
high" or "Azores high"). Our forecast is for near-climo PoPs
(peaking during the afternoon and evening hours in the 30-40%
range), but there will likely be unforeseen day-to-day variations
which depend on subtle changes in the strength and location of
the aforementioned break in the ridge. Temperatures won't change
much, with highs in the mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s, and heat
index values in the 100 to 105 F range.

.MARINE...

The coastal waters will remain near the northwestern periphery of a
surface ridge. Winds be generally be from an onshore direction at
10 KT or less, with seas 2 ft or less.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

While rain rates in the stronger storms will be high the next few
days, the probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5%. The expected lack of storm organization makes
significant river rises unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  95  75  95  76 /  10  40  20  40  20
Panama City   79  89  79  89  79 /  10  40  10  20  20
Dothan        74  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  10  40  20
Albany        74  96  75  95  75 /  10  20  30  30  20
Valdosta      73  96  74  95  75 /  20  40  30  30  30
Cross City    74  95  75  94  76 /  20  40  20  30  30
Apalachicola  77  91  78  91  78 /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

ALZ065-066-068-121830-
DALE AL-COFFEE AL-GENEVA AL-
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN GENEVA AND
WEST CENTRAL DALE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF OPP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALEVILLE...ELBA...ENTERPRISE...FORT RUCKER...LEVEL PLAINS...
SAMSON...NEW BROCKTON...KINSTON...CLINTONVILLE...RICHBURG...
COPPINVILLE...PERA...BATTENS CROSSROADS...LOWE ARMY HELIPORT...
CARL FOLSOM A/P...ESTOTHEL...CENTRAL CITY...
ENTERPRISE MUNICIPAL A/P...CAMP ALAFLO BSA AND TURNER CROSSROADS.

LAT...LON 3155 8586 3133 8567 3109 8610 3123 8620
      3138 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 237DEG 16KT 3126 8612

55-SCHOLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
108 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

ALZ068-069-FLZ007>011-121900-
HOUSTON AL-GENEVA AL-JACKSON FL-HOLMES FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-
NORTH WALTON FL-WASHINGTON FL-
108 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOUSTON...EASTERN
GENEVA...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN WALTON...HOLMES AND
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF BONIFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONIFAY...GENEVA...GRACEVILLE...HARTFORD...SLOCOMB...UNION...
PONCE DE LEON...CARYVILLE...ESTO...WESTVILLE...NOMA...BLACK...
SOMERSET...BARKER STORE...SOUTHERN JUNCTION...BAKER SETTLEMENT...
HICKORY HILL...PLEASANT HILL...NEW HOPE AND PROSPERITY.

LAT...LON 3119 8585 3106 8540 3067 8566 3064 8580
      3068 8587 3070 8586 3070 8591 3081 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 208DEG 14KT 3083 8587

55-SCHOLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

FLZ011-013-122000-
JACKSON FL-CALHOUN FL-
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST
OF MARIANNA TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN TO 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STONEMILL CREEK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIANNA...SNEADS...COTTONDALE...GRAND RIDGE...GREENWOOD...ALTHA...
CYPRESS...WHITE POND...CHASON...SIMSVILLE...SINK CREEK...
HENDERSON MILL...ALLIANCE...SELMAN...KYNESVILLE...MACEDONIA...
MARIANNA MUNICIPAL A/P...TWO EGG...CAMPS HEAD AND CHIPOLA.

LAT...LON 3088 8504 3065 8489 3064 8491 3062 8491
      3061 8493 3060 8494 3058 8494 3058 8496
      3057 8496 3052 8499 3050 8499 3049 8530
      3057 8531 3084 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 258DEG 29KT 3082 8537 3058 8527 3038 8534

55-SCHOLL