Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection got off to a late morning start across the Florida big
bend area and has been concentrated across the Florida counties
through early afternoon. An expansive outflow boundary can be seen
on the TLH 88-D moving northward into southern Georgia with storms
firing along and ahead of it with storms moving generally
southeastward. The risk of severe weather is increasing with
increasing instability and mid level lapse rates. Adding to the mix
is a complex of storms developing across northern Mississippi
eastward to northern Georgia currently and moving southeastward.
Local models have a good handle on this complex as it chugs
southeastward toward our CWA. Timing of these storms entering our
Alabama counties is around 22Z then entering our western Florida
counties an hour or so later. Given the thermodynamic profile,
damaging winds is the main threat followed by large hail. SPC has
issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for our southeast Alabama
counties through 9 PM CDT. It is possible that a local extension of
this watch may be needed for our western Florida counties this
evening. Instability will wane after sunset with an overall
weakening of convection by late evening.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A cold front will be situated across the CWA Saturday morning and
sink south of the area by Saturday night. Enough moisture and
instability will remain for convection to develop Saturday. Hi-res
models clearly show the focus in the southern half of the CWA
while other models suggest potential extending further north. Have
kept the highest PoPs (40-50%) for Saturday across the southern
part of the CWA with 20-30% across the north. By Sunday, high
pressure builds into the CWA from the mid-Atlantic, bringing drier
air into the CWA, with convection mainly limited to the marine
area.

Maximum temperatures through the short term will be near to below
normal.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Surface high pressure will dominate initially in the long term
with dry conditions across the CWA. This will weaken some mid-week
as a front sinks into the TN valley. Rain chances will return for
late in the week as the front sinks southward.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening.
Thunderstorms will contain gusty winds and some could be severe.
Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms. By midnight
showers and storms will become more isolated.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate westerly winds will continue through tonight with small
craft exercise caution conditions. Winds will increase Saturday
night to Sunday night with brief Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. After this, winds and seas will remain lower through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist airmass will preclude red flag conditions for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While widespread flooding is not expected, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening with scattered storms
tomorrow. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall with
localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas,
especially in urban locations. Significant rises on local rivers
are not expected. Drier conditions are expected beginning
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  72  89  69 /  60  50  30  10  10
Panama City   78  85  74  86  73 /  40  40  40  20  10
Dothan        73  86  70  87  67 /  60  30  20  10   0
Albany        72  87  68  87  66 /  70  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  86  69  86  65 /  60  50  20  10   0
Cross City    75  89  71  89  68 /  50  50  40  20   0
Apalachicola  78  87  75  87  73 /  40  50  40  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
AL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ tonight
for Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-Houston.

GA...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

FLZ011-013-016-017-026-027-GAZ155-172045-
JACKSON FL-LEON FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-
GADSDEN FL-SEMINOLE GA-
356 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LIBERTY...WESTERN
GADSDEN...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...NORTHEASTERN
CALHOUN...SOUTHWESTERN LEON...SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR AND SOUTHERN
SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT/345 PM CDT/...

AT 356 PM EDT/256 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE TO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...AND MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBORO...CHATTAHOOCHEE...GRETNA...JEWEL FIRE TOWER...ROCK BLUFF...
RIVER JUNCTION...HARDIN HEIGHTS...CENTRAL CITY...SYCAMORE...JUNIPER...EAST
CAMP...CLIO...HARDAWAY...VILAS...NIXON GARDEN...LOWRY...HOSFORD...SMITH
CREEK...MOUNT PLEASANT AND POPLAR CAMP.

LAT...LON 3009 8488 3026 8499 3062 8494 3071 8487
      3070 8465 3009 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 253DEG 6KT 3065 8479 3019 8477

15-HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAZ143-155-156-172100-
DECATUR GA-MILLER GA-SEMINOLE GA-
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DECATUR...SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER AND NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST BAINBRIDGE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLQUITT...BAINBRIDGE...DONALSONVILLE...WEST BAINBRIDGE...IRON CITY...
BRINSON...SHARPHAGEN...LYNN...BABCOCK...HANOVER...AUSMAC...BOYKIN...STEINHAM
STORE...DECATUR CO A/P...ELDORENDO AND CYRENE.

LAT...LON 3080 8468 3094 8488 3121 8472 3101 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 217DEG 9KT 3097 8470

15-HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

FLZ013-026-172100-
CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND CENTRAL
CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/...

AT 436 PM EDT/336 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOUNTSTOWN...ORANGE...BRISTOL...SCOTTS FERRY...HUGH CREEK...RED OAK...
MARYSVILLE...DURHAM...WOODS...CLARKSVILLE...ESTIFFANULGA...FRINK...ABE
SPRINGS...SHARPSTOWN AND KENNYS MILL.

LAT...LON 3029 8529 3048 8526 3047 8495 3021 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 280DEG 5KT 3038 8517

15-HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
445 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

FLZ016-GAZ156-172130-
GADSDEN FL-DECATUR GA-
445 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN AND
SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
QUINCY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...GREENSBORO...CHATTAHOOCHEE...GRETNA...MOUNT PLEASANT...HARDIN
HEIGHTS...DOUGLAS CITY...SAWDUST...SYCAMORE...FACEVILLE...JINKS...ROSEDALE...
HARDAWAY AND RECOVERY.

LAT...LON 3059 8487 3078 8481 3078 8453 3050 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 279DEG 5KT 3068 8475

15-HARRIGAN