Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
714 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Scattered thunderstorms will impact DHN and vicinity early in the
period. Activity should diminish by 02z. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will previal across the region with a slight chance for
a brief pre-dawn period of MVFR visibilities.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [343 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridging across the CWA breaks down tonight as a weak
shortwave across the Mississippi Valley this afternoon slides
eastward tonight. Convection has developed this afternoon and a few
strong to severe storms are still possible. Expect activity to
diminish after 02z, with a few thunderstorms across the coastal
waters and the western portion of the CWA possible late tonight.

Low temperatures tonight will be above normal with lows in the low
to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Unsettled weather with above average thunderstorm chances are
expected to continue as a weak trough traverses the region,
advecting deep moisture across the region. The latest operational
guidance continues to indicate precipitable water values rising
above 2 inches Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. However, the lack
of substantial forcing should limit any widespread heavy rainfall
potential. Nonetheless, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with thunderstorms. The environment will be favorable for isolated
severe thunderstorms, with marginally severe microbursts being the
most likely hazard. Heat indices will exceed 105 degrees F in
portions of the area Tuesday, with southeastern portions of the
forecast area approaching the heat advisory criteria of a 108
degree heat index by Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through Friday before a
trailing cold front is expected to scour out some moisture for the
weekend. Ample deep layer moisture in place prior to the frontal
passage will keep heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to
lower 100s during the mid to late afternoons.

.MARINE...

Typical summertime conditions expected to continue through
Wednesday, with an afternoon sea breeze and chances for
thunderstorms near the coast. Westerly winds and seas are expected
to increase Thursday and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front,
with exercise caution conditions possible by late Thursday into
Friday and potentially small craft advisory conditions developing
by late Friday. Winds are expected to shift and decrease into the
weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period as a
moist airmass remains in place over our area.  RH values are not
expected to dip below 40-50% any day this week.

.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the next several days could lead to localized flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  90  75 /  30  50  20  60  30
Panama City   77  87  78  85  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
Dothan        75  91  74  90  75 /  30  60  40  70  30
Albany        75  94  74  91  74 /  20  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      75  94  74  91  75 /  30  60  30  70  40
Cross City    76  93  76  90  76 /  30  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Lamers