Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
952 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Seabreeze thunderstorms remained scattered and confined to mainly
north Florida and the southern tier of our Georgia counties this
afternoon. This evening, as the seabreeze spread north into
Alabama, added convergence from outflow and a weak area of low
pressure allowed for some stronger storms to develop. A few storms
produced gusty winds and small hail. Over the next few hours,
expected a downward trend in coverage and intensity over Alabama.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [740 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The weak quasi-stationary front will remain stretched across the
forecast area through Thursday evening, serving as a focus for
afternoon and evening convection. By Friday, the influence of short
wave ridging will help translate the surface front northward as a
warm front ahead of the short wave trough approaching from the west.
Q-G forcing along with deep layer moisture will be increasing
resulting in at least a good chance for convection Friday/Friday
night. Our CWA for Friday is under a marginal risk as issued by SPC,
therefore some of the storms that develop may be strong to severe.
Temperatures will generally be a little warmer than average, with
lows around 70, and highs near 90 away from the beaches.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A trough axis and an accompanying cold front will move southeastward
and is expected to pass through the area on Saturday morning. There
is a good chance of rain in the region associated with this front.
Northwesterly flow after the passage of the trough axis and sinking
motion aloft will lead to significant drying. Beginning on Sunday,
fair weather is expected to persist through the period. Cooler
temperatures, with lows in the lower 60s and highs in the mid 80s,
and lower humidity can be expected on Sunday and Monday. By mid-
week, the flow will regain a southerly component which will return
temperatures and humidity to average.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

As the storms begin to dissipate, VFR conditions are expected at
all TAF sites. Around 08Z, ceilings and visibilities are likely to
decrease to LIFR at TLH and VLD and to IFR at DHN and ABY due to
fog/mist. After sunrise, ceilings should lift and visibilities
should improve. With the possibility of afternoon showers in the
CWA, MVFR conditions were kept for the remainder of the period.

.MARINE...

Relatively light onshore winds will continue through Friday, with
winds increasing to moderate levels and veering to the west on
Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will be 3 feet
or less.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No Concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

River levels are low due to the recent dry weather. Rain chances are
increased for the rest of the week with a drier pattern returning on
Sunday. Rain totals over the next five days are forecast to be
around one to two inches. No impacts are expected from rainfall with
low river flows in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  89  71  86  71 /  10  40  20  40  50
Panama City   75  82  73  80  73 /  10  20  10  40  60
Dothan        69  87  69  83  69 /  60  40  20  60  70
Albany        69  87  69  85  69 /  10  50  30  60  80
Valdosta      68  88  70  87  70 /  10  50  30  30  60
Cross City    71  87  70  88  72 /  10  20  20  20  40
Apalachicola  73  82  73  81  73 /  10  20  10  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry/Hathaway
LONG TERM...Barry/King
AVIATION...Harrigan/Chaney
MARINE...Barry/Hathaway
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Mcdermott

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
743 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

ALZ068-069-FLZ009-011-190130-
HOUSTON AL-GENEVA AL-JACKSON FL-HOLMES FL-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOUSTON...
SOUTHEASTERN GENEVA...NORTHEASTERN HOLMES AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRACEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD...GRACEVILLE...MADRID...CAMPBELLTON...MEMPHIS...BROWNTOWN...
SOUTHERN JUNCTION...COBB CROSSROADS...HODGESVILLE...KEYTONS...FADETTE...
GARRETTS CROSSROADS...OLYMPIA SPA RESORT...ELLAVILLE...MERRITTS
CROSSROADS AND JACOB CITY.

LAT...LON 3096 8557 3111 8553 3116 8529 3089 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 278DEG 11KT 3101 8548

15-HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

ALZ066-068-069-190200-
DALE AL-HOUSTON AL-GENEVA AL-
818 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON...
NORTHEASTERN GENEVA...SOUTHERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN DALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DOTHAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOTHAN...TAYLOR...MIDLAND CITY...KINSEY...ASHFORD...COWARTS...WEBB...
PINCKARD...REHOBETH...GRIMES...AVON...MEMPHIS...GREEN ACRES...PLEASANT
PLAINS...ARDILLA...SMYRNA...JONES CROSSROADS...ENON...HOLLIS DAIRY ROAD
AND OLYMPIA SPA RESORT.

LAT...LON 3131 8523 3117 8521 3110 8546 3118 8547
      3119 8559 3131 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 224DEG 11KT 3117 8538

15-HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
913 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

ALZ065-066-190245-
DALE AL-COFFEE AL-
913 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COFFEE AND NORTHERN
DALE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ENTERPRISE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OZARK...ENTERPRISE...FORT
RUCKER...ARITON...AND MARLEY HILL.

LAT...LON 3142 8549 3129 8586 3136 8593 3162 8570
      3162 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 233DEG 21KT 3137 8584

9-FOURNIER