Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Tallahassee, FL

731 
WHUS72 KTAE 301408
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016


GMZ750-770-010000-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-161201T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
908 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES/SEAS...5 TO 7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 9 FEET WELL 
  OFFSHORE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DVD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1244 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

CIGS will decrease this morning to mainly IFR with IFR to MVFR
through much of the day. A cold front will move through this
evening/tonight bringing rain and strong winds to the TAF sites.
Isolated showers are possible now through the afternoon, but a
line of thunderstorms is expected to come through this evening and
will likely need to tempo in TSRA in future updates, particularly
for the western TAF sites. In addition to the rain, winds will
increase for the late morning into the afternoon with gusts of
20-30kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [825 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across Louisiana,
Mississippi and northern Alabama. This activity will will remain
well to the west and north of our area. Within the tri-state
region, fog and low stratus will be the story tonight. Patchy fog
is expected to develop and persist through sunrise tomorrow
morning. Some areas of dense fog is not out of the question. Plan
ahead and allow extra time for the morning commute. Temperature
wise, this will inhibit radiational cooling overnight, keeping
lows generally in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees overnight.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The main concern is the potential for any severe weather on
Wednesday. A squall line is expected to be located west of the
area by daybreak on Wednesday. As the line progresses eastward
into the forecast area later in the afternoon, the strongest upper
level dynamics and low level jet will be lifting north of the
area. Even so, both the 12z NAM and GFS agree that 40-45 knots of
850 mb flow will push through the area with 0-6 km bulk shear over
50 knots across the western portions of the area. Instability is
higher on the NAM than the GFS, but in general somewhere between
500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE is expected. There remains a marginal risk
of severe weather across the area, but mainly focused on the
western half of the area during the afternoon hours, generally
west of an Albany to Tallahassee line. The main threat is
marginally severe wind gusts. It is hard to completely rule out an
isolated tornado in these situations given strong low level shear
as well, although the chance is small.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air is expected on Thursday with
overnight lows Thursday night dropping into the upper 30s to lower
40s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place on Friday as
a new upper level trough digs into the southwest states. It
appears as though this trough will be progressive with a quick
return of moisture expected along with decent rain chances by
Sunday as the trough moves eastward. Models have been differing on
the details of the system, such as whether we will be in the warm
sector with a chance of thunderstorms, or remain in the cool
sector with more stratiform rain. Rain chances appear to continue
into Monday and possibly Tuesday depending on the speed of the
system. There is a lot of spread in the temperature guidance for
this weekend depending on whether we're in the warm or cool
sector. A blend of the guidance was used.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds in the 15 to 20 knot range will continue through
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. A few strong storms are also
possible on Wednesday with locally gusty winds. Winds will shift
to northerly on Thursday behind the front and then easterly by
Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are expected across a large portion of the
tri-state region tomorrow, along with strong southwesterly
transport winds on the order of 25 to 35 mph ahead of an
approaching cold front. RHs are expected to be well above critical
thresholds, therefore no hazardous fire weather conditions are
anticipated.

RHs in the low 30s are expected to make a brief return to the
region for Thursday and Friday before another increase this
weekend ahead of a another potential system.

.HYDROLOGY...

Additional rainfall amounts through Wednesday are generally
expected to be near a half inch across southeast Alabama with
locally higher amounts possible there. Elsewhere, generally around
a quarter inch is expected. The pattern looks fairly active with
additional rainfall expected late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  53  69  38  67 /  60  60   0  10  10
Panama City   75  51  65  43  65 /  70  40   0  10  10
Dothan        79  43  63  36  64 /  90  30   0   0   0
Albany        80  48  65  37  64 /  80  40   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  54  68  38  66 /  30  60   0  10   0
Cross City    80  61  72  39  69 /  20  50  20  10  10
Apalachicola  76  56  67  44  66 /  40  60  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Pullin