Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Tallahassee, FL

876 
WWUS52 KTAE 131934
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
234 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

FLC063-GAC201-131943-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-161213T2000Z/
Jackson FL-Miller GA-
234 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL JACKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3087 8492 3094 8490 3101 8491 3102 8455
      3084 8456 3087 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 269DEG 28KT 3096 8479 

$$

GAC087-253-132000-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-161213T2000Z/
Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
234 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST
FOR CENTRAL DECATUR AND NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

At 233 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Donalsonville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, West Bainbridge, Iron City, Brinson, Hanover, Lela,
Ausmac, Desser, Decatur Co A/P, Donaldsonville A/P, Cyrene and Little
Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 8492 3094 8490 3101 8491 3102 8455
      3084 8456 3087 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 269DEG 28KT 3096 8479 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

15-HARRIGAN

934 
WWUS52 KTAE 131951
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

GAC087-253-132000-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-161213T2000Z/
Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
251 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL DECATUR AND
NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM EST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3087 8492 3094 8490 3101 8491 3102 8455
      3084 8456 3087 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 293DEG 44KT 3086 8464 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1046 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2016

.UPDATE...

Cancelled the rest of the dense fog advisory early as visibilities
were improving and the onset of sustained southwesterly winds
starting to mix out the dense fog. Conditions will continue to
improve over the next hour.

A warm frontal boundary is draped to our north across central
Alabama into Georgia. Showers continue to move along the front to
our north and west. A subtle shortwave trough is expected to move
through the flow today and enhance showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms later today with chances for precipitation
increasing, especially closer to the front in SE Alabama and SW
Georgia. Shear and instability will be limited today so not
expecting severe storms. Highs today will be in the 70s (mid 70s
across I-10 corridor to lower 70s across more cloudy areas of SE
Alabama and SW Georgia.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [940 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 11 pm regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary front
from along the Piedmont, through central AL and GA, and into east
TX. South of this front, with warm, moist Gulf air beneath dry air
aloft, conditions appear favorable for widespread fog through mid to
late morning. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed quasi-zonal
winds over much of the CONUS, with multiple, subtle short wave
troughs embedded within the broader flow. There is good agreement
among the various NWP models that one of these upstream minor
troughs will interact with the surface front, creating an
environment which is more favorable for deep moist convection later
today. The highest PoPs (40-60%), will be across portions of the FL
Panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA this afternoon, with PoPs
below 20% south and east of Tallahassee. Temperatures will be above
average, with highs in the mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels, a deep low over northern Ontario and
associated broad trough covering the eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS
will translate eastward through the short term period. At the
surface, a 1036mb high centered just north of Washington state
tonight will advance SEWD into the Midwest by late Thursday. This
will send a cold into the Tri-state region tonight with the front
passing to our east by Wednesday afternoon. In addition to a warm
moist environment ahead of the front, ample upper level energy and
deep layer moisture accompanying this system will ensure the
development of widespread rains across the region tonight and
Wednesday. Models continue to show just enough instability for
isolated thunderstorms as well. Wednesday night through Thursday
will be cooler and dry.

Lows will be around 60 to the lower 60s tonight cooling into the
lower 40s northwest to mid 50s southeast zones Wednesday night.
Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and then
the upper 50s northwest to upper 60s southeast on Thursday.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Models show the surface high centered over the Midwest moving
east off the mid-Atlantic states Friday night making way for the
next developing cold front which is forecast to bring another
chance for rain by the later part of the weekend. While there are
still some differences between the GFS and ECMWF with how they
are handling the front, both models are hinting that the boundary
may initially stall near or along the Gulf coast with rain
chances lingering into early next week.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Vis/cigs were near or below local minimums this morning, and are
likely to remain very low until late morning. Brief periods of
-RA are also possible at KDHN and KABY this morning. MVFR cigs/VFR
Vis are likely this afternoon. A band of rain (with isolated TSRA) is
expected to develop across southeast AL and south GA this
afternoon or evening, affecting mainly KDHN and KABY. The latest
consensus of NWP guidance is once again bullish on VLIFR Vis/cigs
overnight, but we are not yet willing to go this low given the
uncertainty of the aforementioned rain band, since convection,
even though relatively shallow, can cause overturning of the PBL
and increase mid cloud cover...both of which are unfavorable for
fog/low cigs.

.MARINE...

Winds will be light until they increase to 15 knots behind a cold
front Wednesday night. Winds may reach cautionary levels Thursday
and again over the upcoming weekend ahead of the next cold front.
Seas will also increase to 3 to 4 feet with the higher winds late
in the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals through Thursday morning associated with the
front will be fairly limited with rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5 inch.
The higher amounts are expected to be across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia. The area should be able to handle this amounts
and will monitor for any higher amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  63  72  50  63 /  20  70  60  10   0
Panama City   72  64  69  52  62 /  30  70  50  10   0
Dothan        73  59  65  42  57 /  60  80  40   0   0
Albany        72  59  65  43  58 /  60  80  60   0   0
Valdosta      75  62  70  50  63 /  20  70  60  10   0
Cross City    74  60  73  54  68 /   0  20  40  10   0
Apalachicola  71  65  71  54  65 /  10  40  50  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fournier

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2016

FLZ011-131945-
Jackson FL-
100 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA UNTIL 145 PM CST...

At 1259 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 5 miles southwest of Marianna, moving east at 40
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Grand Ridge, Cypress, Union City, Star, Simsville, Sink
Creek, Alliance and Kynesville.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 8535 3078 8495 3061 8496 3060 8499
      3061 8510 3064 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 275DEG 37KT 3069 8529

38-GODSEY