Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tallahassee, FL

272 
WWUS52 KTAE 131619
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

FLC005-131-133-131628-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-160713T1630Z/
BAY FL-WASHINGTON FL-WALTON FL-
1119 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3054 8592 3031 8576 3029 8608 3035 8611
      3035 8612 3038 8612 3039 8611 3040 8612
      3042 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 253DEG 16KT 3037 8596 

$$

55-SCHOLL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
940 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.UPDATE...

Increased precipitation chances for this afternoon across the
board as hi resolution models are depicting more scattered
coverage today. Highest chances will be across the western half of
the CWA. SPC has outlooked our area in a marginal risk for severe
weather CWA wide with damaging winds being the main threat. Have
added gusty winds in the zones to account for this. Much like the
past several days, a couple of severe storms will be possible
given the thermodynamic profile. Updates sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [657 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Convection currently located over the northern Gulf of Mexico is
trending downward at this hour, with only light showers remaining.
Light showers may linger across our western marine zones for the
next several hours before diminishing around day break.

A stagnant synoptic pattern remains in place for today, with
deep layer ridging remaining situated over the tri-state region.
Flow aloft remains light and out of the south/southwest today with
PWATs progged to be slightly higher across the area than yesterday,
likely running at or just above normal. Thus the greatest
thunderstorm chances will be located across the Florida Panhandle
this afternoon with more isolated coverage expected elsewhere across
the region. Timing wise, convection is expected to develop and
increase in coverage along the sea breeze in northern FL this
afternoon, and spreading northward into southern GA this evening.
Given the forecast thermodynamic parameters from guidance, a few
thunderstorms may become severe this afternoon, with damaging winds
being the main threat.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

A rather weak pressure pattern will prevail across the Tri-State
region through Friday. Any thunderstorm development will likely be
driven by the afternoon seabreeze and subsequent outflow. Isolated
strong to severe storms, with damaging winds being the primary
threat, will be possible each afternoon. High and low temperatures
will likely run a couple degrees above average both Thursday and
Friday.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

In general, deep layer ridging will prevail through mid-week next
week. With seasonable moisture in place, expect near normal rain
chances along the afternoon seabreeze fronts. Early next week may
be slightly wetter than usual should we feel some of the effects
of a shortwave passing through the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will climb
back into the upper 90s, with heat indices over 100 degrees each
day.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

Reduced vsbys due to fog around KVLD are in the process of
recovering back to VFR at this hour. VFR conditions will prevail
today outside of thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect thunderstorms
to increase in coverage early this afternoon, with reduced vsby as
well as gusty and erratic winds possible underneath any activity.

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come during the
overnight hours each night.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime pattern is expected over the next several
days, with scattered thunderstorms each afternoon. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy rain but significant river
rises are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  75  95  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   93  80  89  80  88 /  30  10  20  10  30
Dothan        93  74  94  75  93 /  50  20  20  20  40
Albany        97  74  96  74  94 /  40  20  30  20  40
Valdosta      98  73  95  73  94 /  40  30  40  30  40
Cross City    94  74  95  74  94 /  40  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  92  78  90  78  90 /  30  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

FLZ008-010-012-108-112-131645-
CENTRAL WALTON FL-SOUTH WALTON FL-COASTAL BAY FL-INLAND BAY FL-
WASHINGTON FL-
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT/1145 AM
CDT/...

AT 1200 PM EDT/1100 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF SANTA ROSA BEACH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EBRO...BUNKER...SEMINOLE HILLS...PINE LOG...BRUCE...
PORT WASHINGTON AND RED HEAD.

LAT...LON 3038 8613 3038 8612 3039 8611 3040 8612
      3041 8612 3059 8600 3045 8576 3025 8605
      3035 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 222DEG 15KT 3037 8607

55-SCHOLL