Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across parts of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Based on
latest precipitable water values between 1.7-1.9", these areas are
fairly moist and SBCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg in southeast AL
show that there is plenty of instability present. Effective bulk
shear values are minimal as usual for this time of year, but high
instability and ample moisture should support scattered
thunderstorms (a few possibly strong to severe) across our Alabama
and Georgia counties. Precipitation chances will be lower near the
Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, especially in the
central/eastern Big Bend region where drier mid-level air is
resulting in PWAT values only around 1.5". Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will diminish farther inland after sunset, as
instability decreases later this evening.

Heat indices in the 100s will persist through the early evening
where showers/thunderstorms do not develop, with temperatures in the
mid 90s and dewpoints mainly in the 70s. Overnight lows will be
seasonably warm, with low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A short wave trough will extend SWWD from the Tennessee Valley into
the Mississippi Valley on Sunday with the western extension of the
sub-tropical ridge across the Florida Peninsula. This will place the
local region in deep moist southwest flow. This combined with
daytime heating with max temps in the mid 90s and ample upper
level energy to bring a return of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. PoPs will be tapered likely west (60-70%) where
the deepest moisture and best upper level support will be found
to slight chance (20%) across the southeast Big Bend. The short
wave is forecast to weaken on Monday with the sub-tropical ridge
expanding westward to the central Gulf. Time-height cross
sections and forecast soundings show the return of subsidence
drying, especially across the eastern zones. PoPs will be tapered
30-40% northwest to <20% far southeast. Afternoon highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s west to the mid and upper 90s far east with
heat indices generally ranging from 99 to 106F.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

We will see a gradual increase of deep layer moisture as another
short wave trough develops to our northwest and slowly translates
eastward through the end of the week. This will bring increasing
chances for thunderstorms with near climo PoPs by mid to late week.
Expect highs to generally run in the mid 90s with heat indicies
ranging from 100 to 105F each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period at all terminals,
although there is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
late this afternoon through the early evening hours. The best chance
of showers/storms will be at DHN and ABY, so included a mention of
TSRA at those sites during this time. However, kept prevailing
visibility at VFR for now since timing is uncertain, and any
visibility reductions will be brief. There is a small chance of
patchy fog in the early morning hours at VLD, ABY, and TLH, but
dense fog is not expected.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds generally from the south to southwest at 15 knots or less
with seas 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are possible on Monday. Otherwise there are
no fire weather concerns as RH values remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the period. Organized areas of heavy rain with this
activity will be unlikely. Therefore, the risk of flooding or
flash flooding will be low for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  94  75  93  74 /  20  40  10  20  10
Panama City   80  89  78  89  78 /  20  40  10  10  10
Dothan        74  93  74  92  74 /  30  60  30  30  20
Albany        74  94  74  94  74 /  30  50  30  20  20
Valdosta      74  98  73  97  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
Cross City    75  95  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  78  90  78  89  78 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Pullin

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

GAZ122-124-092030-
TERRELL GA-RANDOLPH GA-
353 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TERRELL AND NORTHERN
RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WESTON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUTHBERT.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAWSON...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...BRONWOOD...PARROTT...YEOMANS...
GRAVES...WADES...OLIVERS MILL...CHAMBLISS...OAKVILLE...WHITE HOUSE...
BENEVOLENCE AND BROOKSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8426 3176 8454 3179 8483 3192 8491
      3193 8480 3192 8469 3193 8468 3192 8465
      3192 8445 3195 8444 3195 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 299DEG 4KT 3188 8462

ADL