Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Tallahassee, FL

412 
WWUS52 KTAE 180249
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1049 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

FLC005-045-180258-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-160618T0300Z/
BAY FL-GULF FL-
1049 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN
GULF COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT/1000
PM CDT/ FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3039 8557 3003 8522 2984 8549 2988 8549
      2993 8555 3012 8581 3021 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 332DEG 25KT 2998 8541 2985 8558 

$$

JLF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection got off to a late morning start across the Florida big
bend area and has been concentrated across the Florida counties
through early afternoon. An expansive outflow boundary can be seen
on the TLH 88-D moving northward into southern Georgia with storms
firing along and ahead of it with storms moving generally
southeastward. The risk of severe weather is increasing with
increasing instability and mid level lapse rates. Adding to the mix
is a complex of storms developing across northern Mississippi
eastward to northern Georgia currently and moving southeastward.
Local models have a good handle on this complex as it chugs
southeastward toward our CWA. Timing of these storms entering our
Alabama counties is around 22Z then entering our western Florida
counties an hour or so later. Given the thermodynamic profile,
damaging winds is the main threat followed by large hail. SPC has
issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for our southeast Alabama
counties through 9 PM CDT. It is possible that a local extension of
this watch may be needed for our western Florida counties this
evening. Instability will wane after sunset with an overall
weakening of convection by late evening.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A cold front will be situated across the CWA Saturday morning and
sink south of the area by Saturday night. Enough moisture and
instability will remain for convection to develop Saturday. Hi-res
models clearly show the focus in the southern half of the CWA
while other models suggest potential extending further north. Have
kept the highest PoPs (40-50%) for Saturday across the southern
part of the CWA with 20-30% across the north. By Sunday, high
pressure builds into the CWA from the mid-Atlantic, bringing drier
air into the CWA, with convection mainly limited to the marine
area.

Maximum temperatures through the short term will be near to below
normal.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Surface high pressure will dominate initially in the long term
with dry conditions across the CWA. This will weaken some mid-week
as a front sinks into the TN valley. Rain chances will return for
late in the week as the front sinks southward.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening.
Thunderstorms will contain gusty winds and some could be severe.
Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms. By midnight
showers and storms will become more isolated.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate westerly winds will continue through tonight with small
craft exercise caution conditions. Winds will increase Saturday
night to Sunday night with brief Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. After this, winds and seas will remain lower through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist airmass will preclude red flag conditions for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While widespread flooding is not expected, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening with scattered storms
tomorrow. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall with
localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas,
especially in urban locations. Significant rises on local rivers
are not expected. Drier conditions are expected beginning
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  72  89  69 /  60  50  30  10  10
Panama City   78  85  74  86  73 /  40  40  40  20  10
Dothan        73  86  70  87  67 /  60  30  20  10   0
Albany        72  87  68  87  66 /  70  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  86  69  86  65 /  60  50  20  10   0
Cross City    75  89  71  89  68 /  50  50  40  20   0
Apalachicola  78  87  75  87  73 /  40  50  40  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
AL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ tonight
for Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-Houston.

GA...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONIFAY                 30.79N 85.68W
06/17/2016                   HOLMES             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW DE FUNIAK SPRINGS  30.75N 86.15W
06/17/2016                   WALTON             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR WALTON SPRINGS ROAD

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE KNOX HILL          30.67N 85.91W
06/17/2016                   WALTON             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 181C AT MORRISON SPRINGS

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  30.62N 85.71W
06/17/2016                   WASHINGTON         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS WASHINGTON
            COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRACEVILLE              30.96N 85.52W
06/17/2016                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
            JACKSON COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FITZGERALD              31.71N 83.25W
06/17/2016                   BEN HILL           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN AND AROUND THE AREA

&&

PULLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OCILLA                  31.60N 83.25W
06/17/2016                   IRWIN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG A 10 MILE STRETCH OF HWY 32 E FROM
            OCILLA TO THE IRWIN COUNTY LINE

&&

PULLIN