Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Tallahassee, FL

577 
WWUS52 KTAE 180130
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAC087-201-253-180140-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-160618T0145Z/
DECATUR GA-MILLER GA-SEMINOLE GA-
930 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DECATUR...MILLER AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3126 8454 3108 8454 3108 8451 3071 8479
      3071 8486 3077 8492 3082 8494 3084 8493
      3088 8493 3093 8498 3096 8498 3097 8500
      3101 8500 3107 8503 3107 8492 3126 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 271DEG 22KT 3134 8479 3103 8500 

$$

JLF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection got off to a late morning start across the Florida big
bend area and has been concentrated across the Florida counties
through early afternoon. An expansive outflow boundary can be seen
on the TLH 88-D moving northward into southern Georgia with storms
firing along and ahead of it with storms moving generally
southeastward. The risk of severe weather is increasing with
increasing instability and mid level lapse rates. Adding to the mix
is a complex of storms developing across northern Mississippi
eastward to northern Georgia currently and moving southeastward.
Local models have a good handle on this complex as it chugs
southeastward toward our CWA. Timing of these storms entering our
Alabama counties is around 22Z then entering our western Florida
counties an hour or so later. Given the thermodynamic profile,
damaging winds is the main threat followed by large hail. SPC has
issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for our southeast Alabama
counties through 9 PM CDT. It is possible that a local extension of
this watch may be needed for our western Florida counties this
evening. Instability will wane after sunset with an overall
weakening of convection by late evening.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A cold front will be situated across the CWA Saturday morning and
sink south of the area by Saturday night. Enough moisture and
instability will remain for convection to develop Saturday. Hi-res
models clearly show the focus in the southern half of the CWA
while other models suggest potential extending further north. Have
kept the highest PoPs (40-50%) for Saturday across the southern
part of the CWA with 20-30% across the north. By Sunday, high
pressure builds into the CWA from the mid-Atlantic, bringing drier
air into the CWA, with convection mainly limited to the marine
area.

Maximum temperatures through the short term will be near to below
normal.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Surface high pressure will dominate initially in the long term
with dry conditions across the CWA. This will weaken some mid-week
as a front sinks into the TN valley. Rain chances will return for
late in the week as the front sinks southward.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening.
Thunderstorms will contain gusty winds and some could be severe.
Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms. By midnight
showers and storms will become more isolated.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate westerly winds will continue through tonight with small
craft exercise caution conditions. Winds will increase Saturday
night to Sunday night with brief Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible. After this, winds and seas will remain lower through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist airmass will preclude red flag conditions for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While widespread flooding is not expected, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening with scattered storms
tomorrow. This could lead to localized heavy rainfall with
localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas,
especially in urban locations. Significant rises on local rivers
are not expected. Drier conditions are expected beginning
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  72  89  69 /  60  50  30  10  10
Panama City   78  85  74  86  73 /  40  40  40  20  10
Dothan        73  86  70  87  67 /  60  30  20  10   0
Albany        72  87  68  87  66 /  70  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  86  69  86  65 /  60  50  20  10   0
Cross City    75  89  71  89  68 /  50  50  40  20   0
Apalachicola  78  87  75  87  73 /  40  50  40  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
AL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ tonight
for Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-Houston.

GA...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW BELLWOOD           31.12N 85.85W
06/17/2016  E60 MPH          GENEVA             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              31.88N 85.11W
06/17/2016                   QUITMAN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN QUITMAN COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW DOTHAN             31.26N 85.44W
06/17/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 231 NORTH OF DOTHAN BLOCKING NORTH
            BOUND LAND

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
849 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW TAYLOR            31.19N 85.48W
06/17/2016                   HOUSTON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN COUNTY ROAD 68 BETWEEN TRAWICK AND BRANNON
            STAND ROAD

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
856 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELLMAN                31.76N 84.62W
06/17/2016                   RANDOLPH           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE SHELLMAN AREA

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE DALEVILLE         31.28N 85.71W
06/17/2016  M59 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            51 KNOT OR 59 MPH GUST MEASURED AT KOZR

&&

DVD