Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tallahassee, FL

605 
WWUS52 KTAE 031504
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

ALC031-045-061-031514-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160203T1515Z/
COFFEE AL-GENEVA AL-DALE AL-
904 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...GENEVA
AND SOUTHWESTERN DALE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3117 8612 3141 8558 3125 8553 3127 8561
      3127 8566 3123 8569 3121 8569 3120 8571
      3120 8552 3111 8548 3100 8549 3099 8564
      3100 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 240DEG 49KT 3117 8577 

$$

9-FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
616 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Rather poor conditions will prevail through
much of the period as a cold front moves through the region. In
general, IFR conditions will be most prevalent with some
occasional LIFR possible. Low ceilings and gusty southerly winds
will prevail ahead of the front this morning, and a band of
showers and thunderstorms will push through the region starting
this morning around DHN and ECP and progressing east through the
day. Some of the storms could be on the strong side with
additional gusty winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [450 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Update...based on some of our latest CAM guidance as well as the
new WPC excessive rainfall outlook which highlights a moderate
risk of excessive rainfall over a large portion of the forecast
area, we have decided to go ahead with a flash flood watch which
covers a large portion of the area. The western part of the watch
is set to end early this evening as the main line of storms pushes
off to the east. As noted in our previous discussion, WPC also
notes the record or near record deep layer moisture ahead of this
system. There has also been a tendency for the global models to be
underdone with their QPF values, and some flash flooding has been
reported upstream with this system back in portions of MS and AL.
The greatest area of concern within the watch is across portions
of southern Georgia around the Albany area, which has the lowest
flash flood guidance values. In addition, as mentioned previously
in the hydrology section, areas around the Kinchafoonee and
Muckalee Creeks could approach flood stage if around 2.5 inches of
rain falls there, which now appears more plausible given the
latest guidance.

Active weather will prevail over the next 24 hours. The main
concern for today is the threat for isolated severe storms and
heavy rainfall as a strong cold front moves into the region. The
latest guidance is a little slower with the overall progression of
the system, which raises some concerns for some heavier rainfall
amounts. Some ingredients for localized heavy rainfall are
forecast to come into place. Precipitable water values are
forecast to reach 1.80" at TLH on the 00z GFS by the end of the
day, which is the near record value for February. In addition, the
large convective band ahead of the cold front is forecast to take
on an orientation more parallel to the mean winds, which would
favor training convection. Some of the hi-res guidance slows down
the convective band's eastward progress once it gets into southern
Georgia, and this will have to be monitored closely. Current flash
flood guidance values are generally a little over 4 inches in 6
hours across a good portion of southern Georgia with higher values
across most of Florida. Urban areas such as Tallahassee and Albany
have lower values, especially around Albany where just under 3
inches in 6 hours could cause some localized flooding there.

In terms of severe weather chances, not much has changed. The SPC
day 1 outlook maintains a marginal risk of severe storms over the
area. One thing working against a higher risk is the expectation
that the low level jet will be lifting north of the area and
weakening some through the day today. Nevertheless, there is still
enough instability and shear for a low end threat of severe
weather, including even an isolated, brief tornado along any
mesovortices that spin up along the main squall line.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The cold front will be moving through the region tonight. Model
guidance suggests that this will be a slow process for the front
to clear the region. The Euro and NAM were used for the bulk of
the short term period, which favor an overall slower progression
than the GFS. A trailing shortwave within the larger scale trough
across the Central Plains should kick off another round of
convection along the frontal boundary late tonight and into
Thursday. Given the good agreement between the NAM/Euro/ECAM
guidance, will show PoPs overnight near 100 percent from ABY-TLH
and points eastward. Rain could be locally heavy at times, but the
threat for severe weather will decrease considerably overnight.

On Thursday, as the upper level pattern amplifies across the Mid
South, the cold front should move off to the east of the region,
with cooler and drier air arriving by Friday.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
A series of northern stream impulses through the long term period
will result in an overall amplification of the Eastern CONUS
trough. An initial impulse on Saturday night will result in a
small increase in rain chances as the system passes through the
area. After generally dry conditions on Sunday, a more substantive
system will drop quickly from the Upper Plains to the Gulf Coast
States on Monday. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that
some of the coldest air of the season could be surging into the
region on Tuesday behind this system. While the system will have
limited moisture to work with, the breezy and cool conditions
will set up a stretch of days where highs struggle to reach 50
degrees across much of the area.

.Marine...
Fog over the nearshore waters this morning should gradually
diminish as winds continue to increase. Cautionary conditions are
expected to continue through the afternoon as the cold front moves
through the region. Late tonight and into Thursday, winds and seas
will increase to advisory levels behind the front. Some decrease
in winds is expected on Saturday before winds increase with the
next system on Sunday.

.Fire Weather...
Widespread rain will occur over the next 24 to 48 hours ahead of a
cold front. The airmass behind the front will not be dry enough to
produce any red flag conditions.

.Hydrology...
Storm total rainfall over the next 36-48 hours is expected to
average in the 2-4 inch range across the area with locally higher
totals possible. These rains are expected to result in steadily
rising river levels over the next few days. With the
Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers already very near or above
flood stage, these rains will result in at least minor flooding in
these areas this week.

Though the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee River Basins in Georgia
have yet to experience any flooding this winter season, that may
change with this system, especially if the heavier rainfall totals
occur above Thomasville and Valdosta, as suggested in some of the
guidance. Minor flooding is possible at Thomasville and Valdosta
later this week. Further downstream into Florida, rises on these
rivers to action stage seem likely with the predicted totals.

The only other areas of concern for river flooding with this
system are the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks in Lee County.
Rainfall in excess of 2.5 inches in these basins would result in
the individual forecast points approaching flood stage later this
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  53  59  36  59 /  80  90  90  10   0
Panama City   70  52  58  40  57 /  80  90  70  10   0
Dothan        70  47  57  34  56 /  90  50  30  10   0
Albany        71  50  58  34  56 /  90  90  70  10   0
Valdosta      76  55  59  36  58 /  70 100  90  20   0
Cross City    77  61  64  37  61 /  50  70  90  30   0
Apalachicola  70  54  59  40  57 /  60  90  90  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Jackson-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning FOR Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY