Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Isolated thunderstorms have developed along various mesoscale
boundaries, and will continue to increase to become scattered to
numerous by mid to late afternoon. The exception will be across
portions of south GA, say around Albany, where a drier boundary
layer should limit updraft strength and persistence. A few storms
could briefly become marginally severe with gusty winds and hail.
Otherwise the storms will dissipate by sunset. Areas of fog will
develop across FL and the Valdosta area, where there will be the
best juxtaposition of a moist boundary layer and a dry mid layer.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the southeast
through the short term, with a continuation of summer-like
conditions. With an active seabreeze each afternoon, expecting
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
The limiting factor, however, continues to be dry mid-level air
which will act to prevent more numerous storm coverage. Above
normal temperatures are expected through the period, with high
temperatures several degrees above normal at nearly all sites.
High temperatures will reach well into the mid 90s inland, and
upper 90s possible on Thursday with slightly cooler near the
coast after the seabreeze moves inland. Low temperatures area-wide
in the low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Summer like conditions and the seabreeze are expected to continue
into the weekend. A front will pass into the southeastern states in
the later parts of the weekend and will contribute to increasing
PoPs on Sunday and Monday. Models are in disagreement regarding how
they handle the front on Tuesday. The GFS sinks the front south of
the area early in the morning, while the ECMWF has the front
lingering across the southern portion of the area until dropping
south late Tuesday night. In either case, drier conditions are to be
expected once the front passes. Early in the period, high
temperatures will reach into the mid 90s across parts of the area.
As cloud cover and precipitation begin to increase ahead of the
front, the high temperatures will moderate to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
Isolated TSRA as of 17z will become scattered to numerous by mid
afternoon across NW FL, SE AL, and along the GA-FL border FL. Few
TSRA are expected around KABY where the airmass is drier. Storms
will end by sunset. The latest NWP guidance consensus indicates a
good chance of fog around KTLH and KECP late tonight and early
Wednesday, which is similar to what occurred this morning. We have
introduced MVFR Vis, but if this trend continues we may need to
downgrade to IFR levels in subsequent TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds are expected over the next several days, with seas
less than 2 feet. Winds up to 10 knots are expected each afternoon
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected over the next few days.
Though spotty heavy rain totals are possible, coverage will not be
widespread enough to result in any flood concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  95  70  97  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
Panama City   75  86  73  87  74 /  10  10   0  10   0
Dothan        69  95  70  96  71 /  10  20  20  10  10
Albany        70  95  71  96  72 /  10  20  30  20  20
Valdosta      70  95  70  96  71 /  10  30  20  30  20
Cross City    71  93  70  95  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  73  85  72  88  73 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Bennett/Godsey
LONG TERM...King/Godsey
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey