Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Tallahassee, FL

755 
WWUS52 KTAE 032113
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
513 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GAC019-075-155-277-032123-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160503T2145Z/
BERRIEN GA-COOK GA-TIFT GA-IRWIN GA-
513 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BERRIEN...
NORTHERN COOK...CENTRAL TIFT AND SOUTHERN IRWIN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3148 8311 3147 8312 3147 8314 3146 8315
      3144 8314 3140 8314 3139 8312 3139 8315
      3133 8351 3150 8357 3166 8309 3156 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 255DEG 24KT 3146 8335 

$$

9-FOURNIER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Thunderstorms were becoming more numerous in the early afternoon
across the area, but storm intensity was only increasing very
gradually. Individual cells were struggling to build much
reflectivity above 20,000 feet, suggesting that perhaps the mid-
level lapse rates are not as steep as what was sampled earlier by
our 12Z Tallahassee sounding. A slight risk of severe weather
continues for much of the northern half of the area from SPC, and
the environment does support the potential for some isolated severe
storms. Objective analysis and modifying the 12Z sounding for
current temperature and dewpoint spreads yields around 2000 j/kg of
SBCAPE, and effective deep layer shear is around 35-40 knots.
Therefore, there is still a chance some of the stronger storms this
afternoon could produce some large hail and damaging winds. Storm
coverage and intensity should diminish quickly after 00Z.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

An elongated +PV anomaly is clearly visible on WV imagery this
afternoon, stretching through the Ohio & Mississippi Valleys, and
the Central & Southern Plains. Another large, but more
consolidated anomaly can also be found on WV imagery entering the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region from the north. At
the surface, a cold front leads these features, draped down the
Appalachians and through the Southeast.

By Wednesday morning, the latter anomaly will force the former
into the Southeast, also just clearing the front through the
southeast Big Bend of Florida. Any rain still lingering tomorrow
morning will likely be around Dixie county and should finish up by
mid-morning. The latter anomaly will settle into the eastern CONUS
through the remainder of the period, yielding a large area of low
pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Lower tropospheric
heights and temperatures between 2-4 standard deviations below
normal will result in a much cooler end to the week. Wednesday
will be the transition day with highs ranging from the upper 70s
north and west of the Flint and Apalachicola, to around 80 to the
east. Thursday will be the coolest afternoon with highs ranging
from the low 70s across Alabama and Georgia to the mid 70s
elsewhere. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to low 60s
on Wednesday night, down to the low 50s on Thursday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging will become entrenched through the extended
range, resulting in above average temperatures and no rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Numerous thunderstorms will develop after 18Z with local MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys in brief moderate to heavy rain as a cold front moves
slowly southeast across the region. There is a threat of damaging
hail with these thunderstorms as well as locally strong wind gusts.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish by 06Z-09Z as the
front moves southeast from the FL panhandle to north central FL.
Expect clearing skies and dry conditions 12Z-18Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...

Cautionary level winds are expected late Wednesday through Friday
morning in the wake of a cold front. Otherwise, relatively light
winds and low seas will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Although much drier conditions are expected over the next several
days, it should be cool enough in the afternoon to preclude
critical relative humidity levels. Thus, Red Flag conditions are
not expected. However, dispersion indices are expected to be
rather high Wednesday and Thursday due to deep mixing heights and
moderately strong transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will result in 1 to 2 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts possible. Rain will generally fall
in the 12 hour period between 18Z today and 06Z Wednesday. Brief
heavy rainfall in urban areas may create some minor street flooding
but otherwise no hydrology related hazards are expected. Dry
conditions return on Wednesday and will continue for the next
several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  81  60  74  52 /  40  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  77  64  74  58 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dothan        61  76  56  71  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
Albany        62  77  57  71  50 /  40  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  79  58  73  51 /  50  20   0   0   0
Cross City    70  80  63  76  52 /  60  40  10   0   0
Apalachicola  68  78  65  74  57 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Hollingsworth
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Hollingsworth

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
454 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             ENE MINTON              31.35N 83.81W
05/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       WORTH              GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED VIA MPING.

&&

08-LAMERS