Freeze Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

621 
WWUS72 KTAE 131114
NPWTAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
614 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-015>019-026>029-034-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-131215-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160113T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-NORTH WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...APALACHICOLA...
CARRABELLE...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...
MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...
ST. MARKS...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...
FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...
LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...
ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
614 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 /514 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING. WHILE A FEW SITES WILL STILL REACH FREEZING
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS, THUS THE FREEZE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 8 am EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the
Gulf Coast, with a 1025 mb high centered at Albany. There will be
some occasional high clouds today but we expect highs to be in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.Prev Discussion [619 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure builds in for the short term with the center
of the ridge sliding over the Southeast on Wednesday. This will
result in cool and dry conditions for the short term. MOS guidance
is showing some mid to upper 20s across the Big Bend area tonight
and while I didn't go as low as MOS guidance, areas in the Big
Bend region are expected to fall into the low 30s tonight with the
mid 30s across the rest of the CWA. Based on this, have issued a
Freeze Watch for tonight for the Big Bend area. While some areas
outside of the watch may touch 32 degrees overnight, these are
more isolated areas across Florida, Georgia and Alabama. By
Thursday, a short wave over TX and an associated low over the
western Gulf will lift northeastward bringing SW flow aloft to the
CWA. This will result in an increase in clouds late Thursday but
precip chances should hold off until the beginning of the long
term.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Shortwave along the Gulf coast lifts into the Florida panhandle
late Thursday night into Friday. While last night the models were
suggesting a Gulf low moving across the Florida peninsula Friday,
the ECMWF and GFS are now further south with that low, but still
across the Florida peninsula, however, they also track another
weak low into the Florida panhandle Friday. This reverses what we
were looking at last night in terms of PoPs and QPF with guidance
now suggesting the better chances of rain across the western half
of the CWA closer to this second surface low. Given this, have
increased PoPs quite a bit for the western half of the CWA. If
this trend continues, will need to increase them even further, but
given the drier solution last night, limited PoPs mainly to
likely. With the surface low tracking into the western part of the
CWA, this also increases the instability across the area late
Thursday night into Friday so have included the mention of
thunderstorms with this system. Will need to monitor the
strong/severe threat as the system moves closer. Instabilities
with the system are decent, but offset from the better low level
shear.

Another short wave is progged to move through over the weekend,
but significant differences in the position of the features exists
between models. After that, colder air and drier air will move in
for the second half of the weekend into next week.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Skies will be mostly clear throughout the TAF cycle. Winds will be
light and westerly.

.Marine...

Light winds will continue for today and Wednesday before increasing
winds and seas Thursday into Friday with the next weather system. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed as winds increase Thursday into
Friday.

.Fire Weather...

A very dry air mass remains in place today. Today RH values will be
in the 20s at most locations. However, Red Flag conditions are not
expected since winds are forecast to be light and fuel moisture is
above critical thresholds.

.Hydrology...

The flooding along the Choctawhatchee at Bruce and along the
Apalachicola River continues, however these rivers continue to fall.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown should drop below flood
stage early this weekend while the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce
is expected to fall below flood stage by Thursday. Refer to our
AHPS page for the latest information for the remaining river
points in flood stage.

The greatest chance for rain will be in the Thursday night to
Friday time period. While amounts will generally be around an inch
or less, parts of the western Florida panhandle and Southeast
Alabama could see amounts up to an inch and a half to two inches.
These amounts are not expected to have a significant impacts on
the rivers at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  31  60  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  37  60  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  34  57  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        56  33  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  33  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  30  62  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  35  60  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-
     Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Henry.

GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX