Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

372 
WGUS62 KTAE 271710
FFATAE

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED BUT STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...

FLZ007>014-108-112-114-271815-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160328T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTH WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...INWOOD...HUDSON...
BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...
GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...PANAMA CITY...CALLAWAY...
LYNN HAVEN...UPPER GRAND LAGOON...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
PORT ST. JOE...WEWAHITCHKA
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016 /1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT SHOULD BE OF THE MODERATE AND STEADY VARIETY THAT WOULD
BE UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES OF WATER.

SOME LOW-LYING AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STANDING WATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] VFR conditions at the start of the period
will lower to MVFR by around 08Z or so and eventually IFR at most
inland sites. MVFR after sunrise will occasionally improve to VFR
in the afternoon. Rain will be on and off through much of the
period, but be most persistent south. Scattered midday and
afternoon thunderstorms could produce gusts to 30kt or greater.

&&

.Prev Discussion [1118 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The afternoon forecast remains on track. Highest PoPs will be
offshore and along the Florida coast for the next few hours.
Expect rain to become more widespread after 06Z. Lows will be in
the mid 60s.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Through the first part of Sunday we may be on the tail end of the
second and weaker area of rain mentioned above. By midday a more
potent southern stream wave, currently over northern Mexico, will
be moving through the north-central Gulf. As this wave reaches the
remnant front/surface trough across the north-central Gulf coast a
robust area of convection is expected to develop, moving eastward
into the Tri-State region late in the afternoon. This will be the
final round of convection, clearing the region Monday morning.
This final round of convection will most likely be rather
progressive keeping the flash flooding potential low. However,
another 1 to 3 inches will be possible through Monday and any
isolated higher amounts could cause problems across the Panhandle
west of the Apalachicola river. This area will be monitored
closely overnight in case a new watch is necessary for tomorrow.
Concerning the severe weather potential on Sunday, mid-level lapse
rates are expected to be more meager than on Saturday so the
hail potential seems a bit less. Deep layer shear around 30-40
knots could support some stronger storms as the cluster of storms
moves through the region, though they'll probably be rather
isolated. The main threat would be damaging winds either in line
segments or individual storms, depending on how the complex has
evolved.

Afternoon highs on Sunday will be quelled by the expected cloud
cover and rain. Expect highs to only reach the low to mid 70s. On
Monday most areas will warm back up to near 80 degrees. Expect low
to mid 60s each night.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The extended part of the forecast will see a trend from fairly weak
zonal flow, to broad southwesterly flow through much of the
troposphere as a ridge becomes established near the Southeast coast.
This should sustain warm temperatures through the period with highs
slightly above normal and lows well above normal. A cold front
should eventually push into the region in the latter part of the
week, bringing a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.

.Marine...

Apparently, yet another wake low has developed over the Florida
Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters. Considering the
observed wind speeds and their apparent duration in the latest
HRRR runs, we have decided to issue a small craft advisory for the
western legs for about 5 hours or so. We will monitor trends to
see if these elevated winds continue for a longer period of time.
In general after sunrise, winds and seas will be below headline
levels for the next several days. However, small scale weather
features may continue to result in short-duration increases in
wind speeds to cautionary or advisory levels. The forecast should
be monitored closely over the next 24-36 hours. Additionally,
another round of strong to severe storms are expected to develop
on Sunday.

.Fire Weather...

Wetting rains will continue through Sunday. Drier air will arrive
on Monday but RH values will not meet critical thresholds.

.Hydrology...

A solid 1 to 2 inches of rain has fallen across the Panhandle of
Florida between yesterday and today. Luckily the rain today was
displaced slightly east of yesterday's rain, precluding any flash
flooding. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through Monday
morning and widespread flash flooding is not expected at this
time. There still remains a slight risk for some isolated flash
flooding tomorrow and the next few shifts will continue to monitor
the need for a watch through tomorrow. Outside of the Florida
panhandle, flash flooding is not expected.

Many local rivers are rising today as rain continues to move
through the region. The Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are forecast to rise steadily over the next
few days. At this time only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is
forecast to go into flood stage. However these rivers should be
watched closely this weekend, since it is hard to predict river
crests before the rain has finished falling.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  65  81  56  81 /  80  70  10  10   0
Panama City   69  65  73  58  75 /  80  60  10   0  10
Dothan        71  62  77  51  76 /  80  50  10   0   0
Albany        72  62  78  51  76 /  80  70  10   0   0
Valdosta      74  64  79  55  78 /  80  80  10   0   0
Cross City    78  68  80  60  81 /  40  60  20  10  10
Apalachicola  72  67  77  60  74 /  70  60  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MCDERMOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

FLZ007>012-108-112-114-270315-
JACKSON FL-HOLMES FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-SOUTH WALTON FL-
COASTAL GULF FL-COASTAL BAY FL-NORTH WALTON FL-INLAND BAY FL-
WASHINGTON FL-
1007 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAY...WASHINGTON...WALTON...
HOLMES AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT/1015 PM CDT/...

AT 1005 PM EDT/905 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 49 MPH HAVE BEEN MEASURED NEAR DESTIN AND
EGLIN AFB.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1015 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANAMA CITY...LYNN HAVEN...PANAMA CITY BEACH...CALLAWAY...VERNON...
CHIPLEY...GRACEVILLE...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...BONIFAY...SPRINGFIELD...MEXICO
BEACH...EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE...HILAND PARK...SANTA ROSA BEACH...TYNDALL
AIR FORCE BASE...BRADFORD...UNION...LIBERTY...LIVE OAK AND PARKER.

LAT...LON 3040 8623 3043 8626 3043 8625 3038 8612
      3039 8611 3044 8616 3047 8613 3046 8619
      3050 8620 3046 8639 3099 8639 3100 8529
      3057 8533 3054 8539 2992 8538 3024 8593
      3038 8639 3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 232DEG 22KT 3074 8605

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S DE FUNIAK SPRINGS   30.71N 86.12W
03/26/2016                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON WOODWARD AVE

0945 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SW PORTLAND           30.50N 86.21W
03/26/2016                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 20 AND ALAQUA
            DRIVE

0945 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 E BONIFAY             30.78N 85.61W
03/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 90

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1051 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BONIFAY                 30.79N 85.68W
03/26/2016                   HOLMES             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN IN BONIFAY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1054 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W PANAMA CITY BEACH   30.21N 85.88W
03/26/2016  M41 MPH          GMZ750             FL   MESONET

            PEAK GUST OF 36 KNOTS MEASURED AT THE PCBF1 TIDE GAUGE

&&

DVD