Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
328 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Hermine made landfall around 130 AM ET just east of St. Marks as a
category 1 hurricane. Power outages have been widespread from trees
and limbs down on power lines across the area. Rainfall totals have
been around 3-6" so far with the higher totals of around 4-8"  in
Leon and Wakulla counties and in Dixie and Lafayette counties. Now
that Hermine has moved inland, friction over land has done its job
to lower the maximum wind speeds, but strong winds will remain a
threat across the FL Big Bend and south central GA for the next
several hours. Flooding from heavy rainfall and surge still remain a
significant threat. Additionally, a tornado watch remains in effect
through 8 AM ET. As Hermine moves northeastward and exits our
forecast area this afternoon, conditions will quickly improve in its
wake. We recommend avoiding driving today (if possible) even after
it dies down, however, to allow time for roads to be cleared of
trees that fell overnight and any flooding that may have occurred to
recede.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

An upper level over the northern Gulf coast will enhance upper level
divergence. This feature, along with still plentiful Gulf moisture,
will allow for 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms over
north Florida this weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows
will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Deep layer ridging will return, allowing subsidence over the area
and the return of lower autumn chances for rain (around 20%). Lack
of rain and cloud cover will allow daytime temperatures to climb
back into the 90s, but lows will dip into the low 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Hurricane Hermine continues to move northeastward across the Big
Bend. Hermine will move into South Central Georgia by morning.
Hurricane/tropical storm conditions should be out of the region by
mid to late morning. IFR conditions will linger in the wake of
Hermine. By afternoon VFR conditions will return to the area.
&&

.MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas will lower in the wake of Hermine. By
Sunday, winds return to around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Really?

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

As Hurricane Hermine moves through the region, heavy rain will
continue. Radar estimates indicate that coastal Big Bend Florida has
received 4 to 8 inches. The swath of heavy rain is moving through
the Big Bend and into South Central Georgia. The heavy rain will be
exiting the region by morning. Rainfall totals of 5 to 6 inches are
expected to continue into South Central Georgia. Big Bend Florida
and South Central Florida remain in a flash flood watch.

Big Bend rivers are on the rise. The Steinhatchee River near
Steinhatchee will likely go into flood stage. The Ochlockonee may
rise to flood stage in a couple days. The St. Marks River at Newton
and Sopchoppy Rivers are expected to go into flood stage shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  74  87  74  88 /  70  50  50  20  40
Panama City   87  77  86  77  86 /  40  40  40  20  40
Dothan        89  71  88  72  89 /  40  30  30  20  30
Albany        86  71  87  72  88 /  80  30  30  10  20
Valdosta      85  71  87  72  88 / 100  50  50  20  30
Cross City    85  74  84  74  87 /  90  60  60  30  30
Apalachicola  87  77  85  77  86 /  50  40  50  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Hurricane Warning for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Jackson-Washington.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for South Walton.

     Hurricane Watch for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Inland Bay.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-
     Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Tropical Storm Warning for Henry-Houston.

GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...McDermott

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HURRICANE        1 N PERRY               30.13N 83.58W
09/02/2016                   TAYLOR             FL   PUBLIC

            DOWNED POWERLINES STARTED A GRASS FIRE JUST NORTH OF
            PERRY.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 ESE ADEL              31.11N 83.37W
09/02/2016                   COOK               GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE AREA OF FELLOWSHIP RD AND VAL DEL RD.

&&

MOORE