Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Sacramento, CA

070 
WWUS56 KSTO 060214
SVSSTO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
714 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016

CAC063-060224-
/O.EXP.KSTO.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160606T0215Z/
PLUMAS CA-
714 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 715 PM PDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4025 12104 4024 12104 4024 12101 4023 12100
      4022 12100 4022 12097 4020 12093 4005 12084
      3999 12103 4012 12135 4031 12116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 028DEG 7KT 4020 12111 

$$

CS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
420 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to Hot weather through Monday, with slight cooling
afterwards. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through
Monday...mainly over the mountains with a slight chance for some
storms over the Northern Sacramento Valley this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure area is now centered over Northern Eastern
California and Western Nevada. The HRRR indicates that shower and
thunderstorm activity will increase over the Southern Cascades and
far Northern Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. The storms
look like they may be capable of producing strong winds, heavy
rain and hail. Isolated activity south of I-80 is expected to
dissipate early this evening with the main focus continuing over
the north. The HRRR model is indicating some possible activity
rotating around the low and into the Northern Sacramento Valley
this evening so have included slight chance mention in the
forecast.

As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture
that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional
thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than what
will happen this afternoon and later this evening. The profiles on
Monday look better for producing larger hail on Monday than
today. The Northern Sacramento Valley looks like it will be
warmer on Monday with highs around 102. Further south highs should
be in the mid to upper 90s with the delta warming up into the
upper 80s.

Greater cooling is expected Tuesday and Wednesday and dry weather
as a deep trough of low pressure develops off the coast and
replaces the high pressure ridge over the area with cyclonic flow.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

The consensus of the model forecasts continue to indicate an
upper level trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday through Saturday. This disturbance will bring
cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the valley and
60s to 70s in the foothills and higher elevations.

Disagreements in the models still exist between whether the upper
level system will translate to showers and thunderstorms for the
northern portions of the valley and mountains. The ECMWF has now
emerged as the model most aggressive with bringing precipitation,
with the GFS now backing off on precipitation chances. Due to the
consistency of the progression of the upper level low that should
clip the northern most portions of the forecast area, official
forecast now includes some slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms for Friday afternoon through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light wind
shifts are expected through the forecast period.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over the
northern portions of the mountains and valley, which may affect
KRDD. Developing storms could cause erratic wind shifts and gusts
and frequent lightning. Storms may also affect KRBL, but
confidence is lower at this time and placed a vicinity mention in
the TAF. Storms should dissipate after 6z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&