Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 318

July 3, 201626 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 3, 2016, 2:51 PM CDT for 26 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 3, 2016, 2:51 PM CDT (19:51 UTC)
Expired
Jul 3, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 26 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 3:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Green, Metcalfe30 min
Jul 3, 6:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hardin34 min
Jul 3, 7:27 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKBreckinridge, Hardin18 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-07-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 93 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-07-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
93 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

469 
WWUS20 KWNS 031949
SEL8  
SPC WW 031949
KYZ000-040300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR
TWO...EXPECTED TO FORM/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENE ACROSS WATCH AREA
THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY TO 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 1:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle and 22 more2 hr
Jul 3, 2:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle and 23 more8 hr
Jul 3, 5:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bourbon and 79 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.