Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182

May 19, 201620 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 19, 2016, 7:56 AM CDT for 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2016, 7:56 AM CDT (12:56 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2016, 2:47 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

Counties Aransas County, TX, Atascosa County, TX, Bee County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Duval County, TX, Frio County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Webb County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 8:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CRP	La Salle	58 min
May 19, 10:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CRP	Bee, Live Oak	34 min
May 19, 10:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CRP	Bee, Goliad	40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2030 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 661 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 291 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.4
Supercell composite: 14.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

357 
WWUS20 KWNS 191253
SEL2  
SPC WW 191253
TXZ000-CWZ000-192000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTH TEXAS
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 755 AM UNTIL
  300 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW NORTH OF LAREDO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...EVOLVING INTO AN EASTWARD-MOVING LINE.
EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALICE TEXAS TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VICTORIA TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 7:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aransas, Atascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Dimmit, Frio and 10 more	116 min
May 19, 10:13 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Goliad, Jackson, Jim Wells and 6 more	92 min
May 19, 11:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Galveston, Jackson and 4 more	85 min
May 19, 3:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cameron, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy	88 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.