Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 995
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2016, 2:38 PM MDT for 15 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 20, 2016, 2:38 PM MDT (20:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 20, 2016, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Adams County, CO, Alamosa County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Clear Creek County, CO, Custer County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Gilpin County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Park County, CO, Teller County, CO
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2874 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
578
ACUS11 KWNS 202038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202038
COZ000-202245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...COLORADO FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 202038Z - 202245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE AND POSSIBLY EXPAND INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
FRONT RANGE IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
WEAK...LOW-LEVEL ELYS VEERING TO MIDLEVEL WLYS ARE SUPPORTING AROUND
20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES GIVEN THAT WEAK-TO-MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
750-1500 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE SEVERE HAIL RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING
1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. SOME
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN
LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEEPER AND WARMER.
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/PROPAGATE...BUT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS OR A SMALL COMPLEX TO MOVE
OFF OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/20/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37420597 38720599 39460600 40100555 40260517 40310460
40270408 39490385 39180455 38350490 37310494 37420597Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.