Mesoscale Discussion 967

Issued

Jun 17, 2016, 3:04 PM MDT (21:04 UTC)

Expired

Jun 17, 2016, 5:30 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

436 
ACUS11 KWNS 172105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172104 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEB...AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST KS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172104Z - 172330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEB...PART OF CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST KS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST CO. 
SINCE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD BE LOW...A WATCH DOES NOT
APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEB AND
WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST KS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A SLOW EASTWARD-MOVING MIDLEVEL
CIRCULATION INTO SOUTHWEST KS.  THE NEB BOUNDARIES AND THE KS
CONFLUENCE ZONE INTERSECT IN NORTHEAST CO...WITH THIS LATTER AREA
ALSO BEING AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ AND
A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES.

TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CBS WITH AN
AGITATED CU FIELD NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WHILE MRMS DATA
SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS THUS FAR IN NORTHWEST CHEYENNE COUNTY KS
AND ADJACENT YUMA COUNTY CO.  THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL/PULSE-TYPE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

12Z 4-KM WRF-NSSL/WRF-NMM EACH SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...THOUGH OVERALL STORM INTENSITY WITH
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NCEP-HRRR SUGGEST
STORM MERGERS ACROSS NORTHWEST KS COULD RESULT IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...AND IF GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED...THEN WW ISSUANCE AND OUTLOOK
UPGRADE WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   41430077 41849961 41499855 40919881 40319978 39960016
            39649997 39189902 38739864 38389867 38409948 38860067
            39400154 39530231 39540284 39930319 40330280 41020185
            41430077

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.