Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 964
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT for Lyon County, Osceola County, Sioux County, Iowa; 20 counties in Minnesota; 13 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 17, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 17, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 36 counties
Lyon County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Brown County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rock County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Swift County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Brookings County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD
The radar
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1540 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
731
ACUS11 KWNS 171931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171931
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-172100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN/PARTS OF EASTERN SD/FAR
NORTHWEST IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171931Z - 172100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL/ ACROSS
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION /NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL SD INCLUDING DEUEL COUNTY/ WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. IF CU/TCU BEGINS
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THEN A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MRMS CAPPI DATA AND MESH SUGGEST STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN /IN OTTER TAIL TO NORTHERN TODD COUNTIES AND FROM
NORTHERN KANDIYOHI TO SOUTHERN STEARNS/MEEKER COUNTIES/ HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY SINCE 1840Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE NORTHERN MN MCS...AS STORMS CONTINUED TO
FORM/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...GIVEN WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 500 MB.
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS/ EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL MN STORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN/EASTERN SD AND EASTERN NEB
WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STEEP
LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AS THE CENTRAL MN STORMS MOVE EQUATORWARD
AWAY FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO THE UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AREAS OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS BEING OBSERVED IN EXTREME
EAST-CENTRAL SD ALONG THE MN BORDER IN DEUEL COUNTY SD TO
LINCOLN/YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES MN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGER IN VICINITY OF AN EASTERN SD SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MEEKER/KANDIYOHI COUNTIES TO
NORTHEAST SD AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
/CHARLES MIX AND GREGORY COUNTIES/. LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43799799 44579752 45139620 45539540 45899495 45779438
45419400 44859395 44279441 43249533 42929659 43369806
43799799SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 3:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Plymouth, Sioux | 7 hr |
| Jun 17, 6:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Sioux | 92 min |
| Jun 17, 5:44 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kittson, Marshall | 61 min |
| Jun 17, 7:20 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beltrami, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Pennington and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 17, 7:32 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beltrami, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen, Marshall and 5 more | 28 min |
| Jun 17, 9:56 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant, Hubbard and 4 more | 34 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.