Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 957

June 17, 201613 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2016, 3:23 AM CDT for 13 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2016, 3:23 AM CDT (08:23 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2016, 5:00 AM CDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barnes County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264Jun 17, 7:15 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2745 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1725 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

602 
ACUS11 KWNS 170823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170823 
NDZ000-171000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263...

VALID 170823Z - 171000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SHORT QLCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE BISMARCK
AREA. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE INTO EASTERN ND MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY
10Z.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF AN INTENSE SHORT-LINE SEGMENT RUNS FROM
MERCER TO GRANT COUNTIES AS OF 0815Z. BASED ON INBOUND VELOCITY
SIGNATURES EXCEEDING 50 KT AND MRMS MESH DATA DEPICTING EMBEDDED
1.0-1.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL...A SWATH OF SEVERE WIND-DRIVEN LARGE
HAIL APPEARS PROBABLE /ESPECIALLY ALONG A DEVELOPING BOW STRUCTURE
IN WESTERN MORTON COUNTY/. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED BY ELEVATED
PARCELS...IT IS APPROACHING THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS
LIKELY JUST EAST OF BISMARCK BASED ON 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POTENTIAL ACCELERATION OF FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN THIS
LINE SEGMENT CROSSING THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST ND. THIS MAY
SUSTAIN A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONTINUING AFTER SUNRISE.

..GRAMS.. 06/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47400182 47700125 47929976 47989868 47889792 47499768
            47099759 46799784 46509892 46350029 46330125 46650140
            47030156 47400182

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 12:36 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Hettinger, Mercer and 2 more	84 min
Jun 17, 1:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Emmons and 17 more	6 hr
Jun 17, 5:44 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 3 more	61 min
Jun 17, 7:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill, Walsh	4 hr
Jun 17, 7:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Grand Forks, Pembina, Steele, Traill, Walsh	28 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.