Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 944
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 6:10 PM CDT for 23 counties in Kansas; Nuckolls County, Webster County, Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 25 counties
Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Smith County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Nuckolls County, NE, Webster County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 845 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -180 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1752 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
825
ACUS11 KWNS 152310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152310
KSZ000-NEZ000-160115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS INTO EXTREME SCNTRL AND
SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152310Z - 160115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND ECNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB THROUGH 01Z AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF REMAINING THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT AND
DEEPLY MIXED REGIME ACROSS CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
FOSTERED BY NUMEROUS STORM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER ECNTRL KS WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S
SUPPORTING 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS IS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RESULTING FROM ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY 01Z.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40439822 39049613 37939614 37389698 38489844 40119893
40439822SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 3:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Comanche and 33 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.