Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 932
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 1:40 PM EDT for 53 counties in North Carolina; 28 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 3:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 81 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Greene County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pender County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 153 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -179 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1032 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
884
ACUS11 KWNS 151741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151740
NCZ000-SCZ000-151915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151740Z - 151915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN DEEPENING CU FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES 1.7-2.1 INCHES. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS MAY BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OUT
OF SERN TN AND NRN GA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS POSSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RICH
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD APPROACH SVR LIMITS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERALLY POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34727668 34277747 33267886 32937941 32947994 33268048
33988175 34638240 35038255 35698214 36168162 36498079
36117889 35257687 34727668Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.