Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 919
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 5:37 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Indiana; 25 counties in Kentucky; Pickett County, Tennessee. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2016, 5:37 PM EDT (21:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2016, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 27 counties
Jefferson County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Russell County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Pickett County, TN
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 961 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1077 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
247
ACUS11 KWNS 142138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142137
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-142330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA...CNTRL KY...NERN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142137Z - 142330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE EDGE
OF A PLUME OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF UPSCALE
GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE RESULTED IN STRONGER COLD POOLS
EVOLVING E OF LOUISVILLE INTO PARTS OF CNTRL KY. A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN STRONG TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY WATER LOADING
GIVEN PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES. FOLLOWING PREFERENTIAL CELL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION EWD IN THE UNSTABLE AIR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN IN A FEW HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE EDGE OF NOTABLY
LOWER THETA-E...FROM SW OF THE COVINGTON KY AREA TO LONDON KY. WEAK
DEEP SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36688538 37758543 38688563 38888538 38738493 37968454
36608433 36348483 36688538Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.