Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 889

June 12, 201622 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 12, 2016, 7:20 PM EDT for 22 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 12, 2016, 7:20 PM EDT (23:20 UTC)
Expired
Jun 12, 2016, 8:45 PM EDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 32 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Brunswick County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, Greensville County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Southampton County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1360 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 88 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1360 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1260 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

890 
ACUS11 KWNS 122321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122320 
NCZ000-VAZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122320Z - 130045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING DESCRIBED IN MCD 883
REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE S OF A COLD FRONT AND ENHANCED NWLY/NLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A LIKELY SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER IN SRN SUFFOLK COUNTY VA MOVING SEWD INTO NRN GATES COUNTY NC
WITH TIME...POSING A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN THIS REGION IS UNLIKELY.
THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS ALSO UNLIKELY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...REDUCE INSTABILITY...AND LESSEN THE SEVERE RISK.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36787744 36897668 36847594 36277566 35747542 35117538
            35237642 35567732 35997842 36337862 36647844 36827823
            36787744

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 12, 3:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 4 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.