Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 875
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2016, 2:32 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 58 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 11, 2016, 2:32 PM EDT (18:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 82 counties
Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Adams County, PA, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Union County, PA, Washington County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, York County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Ohio County, WV
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -155 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1321 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 257 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 268 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
279
ACUS11 KWNS 111832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111832
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...SE NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111832Z - 111930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN OH ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PA INTO NRN
NJ AND SE NY. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
STORMS INITIATE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION OF THE WATCH ACROSS ERN OH INTO SRN PA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO NRN NJ WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE
SFC TROUGH. SFC WINDS ARE WESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO ERN OH
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ON THE NRN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CUMULUS
PRESENT NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF STATE COLLEGE EXTENDING INTO NE OH
WITH RADAR SHOWING SEVERAL NEW ECHOES OVER CNTRL PA AND NRN OH. THE
LATEST ESRL HRRR TAKES THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOPS SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SEWD ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN SE NY ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE MCD CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PITTSBURGH
18Z SOUNDING SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39778007 39948122 40438211 40968207 41148163 41058031
41037866 41057633 42317526 42617478 42687444 42517378
42117342 41367370 40057478 39707620 39727871 39778007Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.